Bitcoin's Bullish Cycle Ends, Bearish Momentum Expected for Next 12 Months

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has asserted that Bitcoin's latest bullish cycle has concluded, indicating a potential shift to bearish or sideways momentum for the next six to 12 months. This assessment is based on the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index Cyclical Signals, which suggest that the market has reached a peak, aligning with historical patterns that mark the end of growth phases. Bitcoin, which hit an all-time high of $109,300 during President Trump’s second inauguration on Jan. 20, is now poised for correction or consolidation.

Historical trends from prior Bitcoin cycles consistently show a pattern of price peaks followed by prolonged consolidation phases. Young Ju believes current signals closely mirror previous cycle tops, reinforcing expectations of muted performance in the near term. Following Trump’s election victory in November 2024, Bitcoin surged rapidly. However, as optimism waned and market forces shifted, momentum gradually tapered, culminating in the current cycle peak.

The data from the PnL Index chart suggest Bitcoin investors may encounter sustained price stagnation or declines through much of 2025. However, should Bitcoin follow past halving cycle timelines, the peak would be around September 2025. Bitcoin has historically taken around 500 – 550 days to reach the cycle top from the last halving and 780 – 990 days to reach the cycle bottom, advancing by around 100 days each cycle. This would place the market bottom around May 2027.

Ju's analysis is based on historical data and patterns observed in previous Bitcoin cycles. He notes that the current cycle has followed a similar trajectory to past cycles, with a rapid price increase followed by a period of consolidation. Based on this pattern, Ju predicts that the next significant upward trend in Bitcoin prices may not occur until 2026.

This prediction has significant implications for investors and traders in the cryptocurrency market. Those who are bullish on Bitcoin may need to adjust their expectations and strategies, as the market may not provide the same level of returns in the near term. Conversely, those who are bearish on Bitcoin may see this as an opportunity to short the asset or invest in other cryptocurrencies that may offer better returns in the current market environment.

It is important to note that Ju's prediction is based on a single metric and may not account for all factors that could influence Bitcoin prices in the future. Other factors, such as regulatory developments, technological advancements, and macroeconomic trends, could also play a significant role in shaping the market's trajectory. Therefore, investors and traders should consider a range of factors and indicators when making investment decisions.

In conclusion, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's current bullish cycle may have reached its peak, with the next significant upward trend potentially not occurring until 2026. This prediction is based on the PnL index, which tracks the profitability of Bitcoin holdings. While this analysis provides valuable insights into the market's current state, investors and traders should consider a range of factors and indicators when making investment decisions.