Is the Bitcoin Bull Over? New Whales Hit Losses, Old Whales Fade

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 and early 2026 has been a theater of conflicting signals, with on-chain data and price action painting a nuanced picture of a maturing bull cycle and the early shadows of a bearish unwind. As new whales grapple with losses and old whales retreat from aggressive accumulation, the question looms: is this a natural correction in a long-term bullish narrative, or the beginning of a deeper bear market?

Whale Activity: Accumulation Amidst Uncertainty

Bitcoin's whale activity in December 2025 and early 2026 revealed a striking duality. On-chain analytics platforms like Santiment and Arkham Intelligence reported that three wallets accumulated 3,000 BTC-approximately $280 million-in a 10-hour window, with the possibility that these wallets belonged to a single entity. Over the same period, large holders added 56,227 BTC ($5.3 billion), signaling confidence as prices hovered near $90,000. However, analysts like Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant cautioned that much of this activity could be misleading, as exchange consolidation of smaller addresses into larger ones often distorts on-chain metrics.

Despite these caveats, the broader trend of whale accumulation persisted. By January 2026, the average Bitcoin deposit size on Binance had surged 34x to 21.7 BTC per transaction compared to early 2024, suggesting renewed institutional or high-net-worth speculation. This contrasts sharply with retail investors, who increasingly viewed the rally as a "bull trap" and exited positions.

Price Trends: A Bearish Wedge and Structural Optimism

Bitcoin's price trajectory in late 2025 was marked by volatility. A 30% collapse below $82,000 in December 2025-driven by liquidity issues and $19 billion in daily liquidations-sparked panic. Technical indicators reinforced bearish sentiment: Bitcoin traded in a rising wedge pattern, with RSI and MACD suggesting continued downward momentum.

Yet structural factors countered this narrative. ETF inflows averaged $223 million daily, and institutional demand remained robust. The post-halving supply dynamics and minimal exchange reserves further supported a bullish case. Meanwhile, a 4% drop in the network hash rate-the sharpest since April 2024-was interpreted as contrarian bullishness, signaling miner capitulation. Long-term holders (>5 years) maintained their positions, while medium-term holders (1–5 years) sold, highlighting a divergence in investor sentiment.

New vs. Old Whales: A Tale of Two Behaviors

The distinction between new and old whales offers critical insights. New whales saw their loss-taking flatten, potentially signaling a pause in capitulation. This contrasts with earlier months, when new whales realized over $600 million in losses. Meanwhile, old whales reduced on-chain activity, suggesting consolidation or strategic shifts.

Old whale behavior in 2025 was characterized by systematic distribution. Addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC saw consistent balance reductions, with large holders offloading portions of their holdings in a methodical manner. This distribution phase, particularly between $115,000 and $125,000 price ranges, capped upside momentum and contributed to the market's underperformance in late 2025. The shift in ownership from whales to mid-tier investors (100–1,000 BTC) further underscored a redistribution of supply.

Macroeconomic Headwinds and Leverage Unwinding

The bearish narrative gained traction as macroeconomic conditions shifted. Central bank policy divergence and liquidity tightening reduced the speculative environment that had previously buoyed Bitcoin. On-chain metrics like reduced transaction volumes and declining ETF inflows signaled risk-off sentiment. Additionally, the unwinding of excessive leverage in perpetual futures contracts triggered sharp sell-offs, compounding downward pressure.

Conclusion: A Maturing Bull Cycle or Bearish Unwind?

The data paints a complex picture. Whale accumulation and structural factors like ETF inflows suggest a maturing bull cycle, where institutions and long-term holders remain confident. However, technical indicators, liquidity issues, and old whale distribution point to a bearish unwind. Analysts remain divided, with price targets ranging from $60,000 to $500,000 by 2026.

For investors, the key lies in balancing these signals. While Bitcoin's fundamentals-reduced supply and institutional adoption-remain intact, the technical and behavioral signs of a bearish phase cannot be ignored. The coming months will likely hinge on whether institutional buying power can overcome the downward momentum, or if the market will succumb to a deeper correction.