Bitcoin Bull Score Hits Level Seen Only 7 Times In 6 Years – A Rare Historical Signal

Bitcoin’s bull score has reached a rare historical level, last seen only seven times in the past six years. This signal has drawn attention from both retail and institutional investors, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. The score is calculated based on a range of on-chain and market metrics, including buying pressure, accumulation trends, and short-term holder activity. This rare occurrence may indicate a strengthening of the bull market narrative.

The recent accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional players remains a key driver of market sentiment. Strategy, a major player in the digital asset space, has continued to build its Bitcoin reserves, purchasing $1.25 billion worth of BTC in the latest week. This brings its total holdings to 687,410 BTC at an average cost of $75,353, with an unrealized gain of nearly $11 billion. The company's strategy appears to be betting on a long-term appreciation of Bitcoin's value.

Despite the accumulation by large institutional players, sell-side pressure in the Bitcoin market remains dominant. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported that cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot and perpetual markets has declined, indicating an increase in net selling activity. This suggests that while institutional buying continues, retail and speculative selling are still a significant factor in the price action.

Market sentiment has turned cautiously bullish in recent days, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index flashing into 'greed' territory for the first time since October. This shift has been supported by a sharp rise in institutional buying through Bitcoin ETFs, which saw a record $1.7 billion in inflows over a three-day period. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) led the inflows, with over $648 million in new capital.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's recent price action and sentiment shift have been driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and institutional activity. The US CPI data came in below expectations, boosting risk-on sentiment and supporting the broader asset markets. This was accompanied by a surge in institutional buying through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have recorded their highest inflows in three months.

The recent price action has also been supported by on-chain metrics. According to CryptoQuant analysts, the market has seen a significant deleveraging in the derivatives space, with open interest in Bitcoin derivatives declining by 31% since October. This reduction in leverage has historically been a precursor to major market bottoms and potential bull runs.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to break through the $100,000 level, a key psychological and structural resistance. This level has historically been difficult to clear due to concentrated options positions and hedging flows. Deribit data shows heavy open interest at the $100,000 strike, which has created a natural liquidity magnet that can suppress volatility and delay breakouts.

Another key factor under scrutiny is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs). According to on-chain data, LTHs have been accumulating Bitcoin without significant selling pressure, even as prices rise. This suggests a healthy accumulation phase rather than speculative activity. The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which tracks the movement of older coins, has fallen to a historically low level, indicating that mostly younger coins are being moved on-chain.

The market is also watching for any regulatory developments that could impact Bitcoin's price trajectory. The pending Senate Banking Committee markup of the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is seen as a potential catalyst. If passed, this legislation could provide greater clarity for institutional investors and potentially unlock new capital flows into the market.

What Are the Risks to Consider?

Despite the positive signals, several risks remain for Bitcoin investors. One of the most immediate is the possibility of a short-term pullback or correction. Bitcoin ETF flows could reverse, removing a major source of steady buying pressure. Additionally, high leverage in the futures market means that liquidation-driven pullbacks could occur if the price drops quickly.

Another risk is the potential impact of macroeconomic shocks. Unexpected inflation data, bond market volatility, or shifts in Federal Reserve policy could lead to a risk-off environment, which would likely hurt Bitcoin's price. The broader economic environment remains uncertain, and any new geopolitical tensions or regulatory surprises could also impact the market.

Market participants are also keeping a close eye on options expiry dynamics. Large expiries near key strikes can distort price action in the days before and after the event. This can delay breakouts even when the underlying trend is bullish. After the December 2025 options expiry, Bitcoin experienced a period of more natural movement as hedging pressures dissipated.

What's the Outlook for Bitcoin's Price?

Bitcoin is currently trading above $95,000 after a sharp rebound from recent support levels. The price has broken out of a two-month consolidation range, and technical indicators suggest that further gains could be on the horizon. The RSI on the daily chart is above 50, and the MACD has formed a bullish crossover, suggesting that momentum is building.

Analysts are divided on the near-term outlook, but many believe that a move toward $100,000 is possible within the next few weeks. If Bitcoin can hold its current levels and absorb any supply at the $95K–$100K range, the next level of resistance will be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $94,253. A successful breakout would likely be supported by continued institutional buying and favorable macroeconomic conditions.

The market is also watching for any signs of distribution or profit-taking. If long-term holders begin to sell into strength, this could create additional short-term supply pressure and delay the next phase of the uptrend. However, for now, the market appears to be moving higher, and the underlying fundamentals remain supportive of a bullish case.