Bitcoin Bull Run May Peak Between September and November 2025

Bitcoin’s bull runs have historically been closely tied to its halving events, with peaks typically occurring between 365 to 550 days post-halving. The 2013 cycle peaked around 365 days after halving, the 2017 cycle around 520 days, and the 2021 cycle around 550 days. These intervals suggest a pattern where the peak arrives 1 to 1.5 years after halving.

The latest halving occurred in April 2024, and as of July 2025, the cycle is roughly 400 days in. This duration is longer than the 2013 cycle but shorter than the 2017 and 2021 peaks, indicating that the bull run is in its final phase but has not yet reached its top. Analysts predict that the peak could occur between September and November 2025, based on historical patterns. If the cycle follows the 2017 rhythm of 520 days, the peak could be in September 2025. If it follows the 2021 pattern of 550 days, the peak could be in October 2025. Additionally, there is a possibility of the peak extending to November 2025, which would be 30 days beyond the 550-day mark.

This narrows the peak window to September–November 2025. While markets do not always behave uniformly, this provides a strategic framework for profit-taking. Investors are advised to evaluate their positions as the cycle advances past 400 days. Strategies include scaling out gradually into the September–November window, setting price alerts around historical peak trajectories, and maintaining crypto exposure for possible upside while securing gains ahead.

Long-term Bitcoin holders are experiencing a decline in unrealized profits, with the average unrealized profit currently around 220%. This figure is lower than the 300% and 350% levels seen during the March and December 2024 market peaks. The realized price for long-term holders stands at $39,000, indicating that significant gains are still present despite the decline in unrealized profits. To match previous cycle tops, Bitcoin would need to climb toward $140,000, a level many are anticipating.

Market participants are preparing for a period of slower activity, historically known for reduced liquidity and lower volumes. The third quarter of 2025 is typically the quietest quarter of the year for both BTC and ETH. However, this slower period often sets the stage for new narratives to emerge, which could present new opportunities for traders. The Bitcoin Bull Score, a metric that gauges market conditions needed to continue a rally, has moved into neutral territory at 50. This suggests that the leading crypto asset lacks sufficient bullish strength to support a sustained price rally at this stage.

Multiple longer-term indicators suggest that the cycle top in Bitcoin may not have been reached yet. The next levels to watch are at $118,000. Despite the slower momentum, the outlook for the crypto market remains fundamentally optimistic, underpinned by robust price action. The source of Bitcoin demand has also shifted, with institutional investors playing a more significant role in the current bull run. This departure from the prior bull run is one of the key factors that could influence the timing and magnitude of the next peak.