Bitcoin's Bull Run Nears Peak With 45% Gain Since April

Bitcoin's current bull market is approaching its final phase, with analysts warning of a potential 60-70% correction as risks begin to outweigh rewards. The ongoing bull cycle is nearly 88% complete, leaving limited time for significant price increases. This cycle has been one of the longest re-accumulation periods in Bitcoin's history, with nearly eight months passing since the last halving. Such an extended consolidation has allowed the market to stabilize and align with broader trends.

Despite setting new records, Bitcoin's recent momentum has not been as steep as in previous bull runs. Analysts predict that the upside targets could range from $130,000 to $150,000. However, the likelihood of a sharp reversal is increasing as the cycle nears its peak. Historically, the Bitcoin cycle has peaked around 550 days post-halving, suggesting that this market may reach its peak in October 2025. With only a few months of upside potential left, the pressure on the downside is growing.

Technically, Bitcoin remains bullish in the short term, with the price staying above key levels. The asset is currently trading above a crucial trendline, supporting the current bullish bias. Analysts predict further Bitcoin rises until reaching a resistance of between $110,400 and $113,500. A break above this range could initiate a run towards $130,000. However, minor pullbacks are still possible, and there has been no technical signal of a local top as long as the price remains above $107,280.

Bitcoin's recent price action has been marked by a significant rally, with the cryptocurrency surging 45% since hitting a low of $75,000 in April. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just under 4% away from its all-time high of $112,000, after weeks of consolidation and multiple failed breakout attempts. The market is now at a critical juncture, with price movements in the coming days likely to determine the next major move—either a push into new highs or a pullback to key support levels around $103,600 and $100,000.

Bullish sentiment has been building steadily, driven by stabilizing macro conditions. However, investors remain cautious, awaiting confirmation from Bitcoin’s price structure before making aggressive moves. A key on-chain metric, the “% Supply Active, 30D Change,” tracks the percentage growth or decline in Bitcoin’s active supply over the past month. Currently, this value stands at -17%, indicating a marked drop in activity. Historically, this has mirrored conditions seen just before major rallies, suggesting that a tightening effect builds when fewer coins move and supply becomes more static. Once demand returns, it often leads to sharp upward moves.

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows continued strength as price action consolidates just below the $112,000 all-time high. At the time of writing, BTC trades near $107,795, comfortably above the critical support zone at $103,600 and showing consistent higher lows since April. The 50-week moving average is rising sharply and now sits at $85,961, well below the current range, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend.

Despite recent rejections near the $109,300 resistance, bulls have defended weekly closes above $100K and maintained momentum within a tight bullish flag structure. Volume has tapered off slightly, suggesting that traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to large positions. However, the lack of aggressive selling pressure indicates that market participants expect a breakout rather than a breakdown. If BTC breaks and closes above $109,300 on the weekly timeframe, the move would likely trigger stop orders and momentum-driven buying, pushing the price into uncharted territory. A failure to break resistance could result in another retest of the $103,600 level, which has acted as a strong floor throughout Q2 2025. All eyes are now on BTC’s next move, as the market awaits confirmation of the next major trend.