Bitcoin's Bull Run: Key Levels to Watch as $100K Barrier Falls

As Bitcoin (BTC) surges toward its next milestone, traders and investors are fixated on a pivotal moment: the cryptocurrency’s reclamation of the $100,000 psychological barrier. By late May 8, 2025, Bitcoin traded near $102,700, marking its highest level since early February 2025. This rally, fueled by institutional inflows and regulatory optimism, has set the stage for a potential historic breakout—but critical technical levels and overbought conditions demand close scrutiny.

Technical Analysis: Resistance, Support, and Indicators

Bitcoin’s ascent has been methodical, with $99,700–$100,000 acting as immediate resistance. This zone had previously capped gains in March 2025, but a decisive break above $100,000 on May 9 has ignited bullish momentum. Technical analysts now eye two critical targets: the $109,396 all-time high (January 2025) and the $130,000–$160,000 medium-term range, derived from Bollinger Bands and trendline projections.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 30-minute chart sits at 68.21, nearing overbought territory (above 70). While the weekly RSI has already entered overbought levels, traders remain divided: some see this as a warning of exhaustion, while others interpret it as a sign of sustained bullish conviction.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) reinforces this optimism, with a strong bullish crossover and rising histogram bars signaling sustained upward momentum. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands have widened sharply, with Bitcoin’s price near the upper band ($99,704), suggesting volatility could trigger a pullback if momentum falters.

Market Sentiment and Fundamentals: Bullish Bets and Regulatory Winds

Behind Bitcoin’s rally lies a confluence of factors:- Options Market Dominance: 97% of $8.3 billion in Bitcoin put options are set to expire worthless at current prices, as bears abandon short positions. Traders are piling into bull call spreads and bull put spreads, signaling confidence in further gains.- Institutional Demand: $320 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs on May 8 alone, while Bitcoin futures open interest reached $69 billion, with short positions under pressure as prices climb.- Regulatory Tailwinds: U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade deal with the UK—eliminating a 10% import duty—boosted risk-on sentiment. States like Missouri advanced legislation to eliminate capital gains taxes on Bitcoin and establish state reserves. The FDIC and OCC also cleared hurdles, permitting banks to hold crypto and approve institutional trading.

Risks and Challenges

Despite the bullish backdrop, risks loom:- Overbought Conditions: The RSI’s proximity to overbought levels and Bollinger Bands’ upper band suggest a short-term pullback to $97,700 or $96,000 could occur. A failure to hold these supports might open the door to a drop toward $92,000 or lower.- Volume Concerns: Trading volumes on Coinbase declined during the rally, hinting that large institutions may be sitting on the sidelines. This could limit further upside momentum.- Key Resistance Breakdown: Should Bitcoin slip below $97,700, the breakout could reverse, reigniting bearish sentiment and testing deeper support at $94,500.

Conclusion: A Historic Crossroads

Bitcoin’s technical setup on May 9, 2025, paints a picture of highly bullish momentum, driven by institutional inflows and regulatory clarity. The cryptocurrency’s climb to $102,700—its highest since February—underscores its resilience against overbought conditions. However, traders must remain vigilant:
- Immediate Focus: Hold $97,700 to sustain the breakout, with $100,000 now firmly in the rearview mirror.
- Medium-Term Targets: A retest of the $109,396 all-time high could unlock a path to $130,000–$160,000, aligning with historical patterns.
- Risks: Overbought RSI and declining volumes demand caution; a drop below $92,000 would signal a deeper correction.

For now, Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental landscape favors bulls—but the market’s next move hinges on whether traders can sustain momentum through these critical levels. As the saying goes: “Don’t fight the trend,” but also “don’t get carried away.” In this high-stakes game, watching these numbers is as vital as chasing them.