Is Bitcoin's Bull Run Still Intact?

Bitcoin’s 2025 bull market has defied skeptics, with the asset surging past $124,000 in August and maintaining a resilient uptrend despite intermittent volatility. As of September 4, 2025, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric stands at 0.52–0.53, placing the market in the “faith and optimism” and “optimism/anxiety” sentiment zones. This range historically precedes accelerated price moves, suggesting the bull run remains intact but has not yet reached euphoric levels seen in 2013, 2017, or 2021 [1].

On-Chain Metrics: A Bullish Foundation

Bitcoin’s on-chain data tells a story of structural strength. The NUPL reading indicates that most investors are holding Bitcoin at a profit, with the price remaining above critical support levels like the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price of $107.6K [2]. This reinforces the integrity of the uptrend, even as short-term volatility persists. For instance, a 30% pullback in January 2025—mirroring historical patterns—proved temporary, with support found in the $87,000–$96,000 range [3]. Analysts argue that similar dynamics could play out in August 2025, with intersecting support zones around $101,000–$99,000 potentially catalyzing a new all-time high of $130,000–$136,000 [4].

Whale activity further underscores bullish positioning. In August 2025, whale wallets (holding 1,000+ BTC) increased by 13, reaching 2,087, as long-term holders capitalized on dips to accumulate [5]. Over 30,000 BTC was purchased by whales in a 48-hour period, signaling institutional or high-net-worth investor confidence [6]. Conversely, a notable whale dumped 8,000 BTC in a 20-minute window on August 24, causing a $114,000 to $112,000 price dip. However, the whale later sold the remaining 16,000 BTC over 24 hours, swapping proceeds for ETH—a move reflecting strategic capital reallocation rather than panic [7].

Institutional Adoption: A Catalyst for Long-Term Growth

Institutional adoption has emerged as a linchpin for Bitcoin’s 2025 bull run. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have drawn over $20 billion in net inflows year-to-date, with IBIT alone holding 750,058 BTC valued at $82.21 billion [8]. Corporate treasuries now hold 951,000 BTC ($100 billion), surpassing MicroStrategy’s holdings and signaling a shift toward institutional-grade strategies that temper retail panic selling [9].

Regulatory clarity has further accelerated adoption. The U.S. SEC’s approval of liquid staking tokens and the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—a national asset allocation initiative—have solidified Bitcoin’s status as a strategic reserve asset [10]. Meanwhile, legislative actions like the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts have created a favorable environment for crypto ETFs and stablecoins, encouraging broader institutional participation [11].

Short-Term Volatility vs. Long-Term Potential

While Bitcoin’s bull case remains robust, short-term risks persist. A disappointing Producer Price Index (PPI) report in August 2025 triggered a pullback to $118,000 from $124,000, highlighting sensitivity to macroeconomic data [12]. Additionally, Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of -15,444 ETH ($66.56 million), indicating a temporary shift in institutional capital toward Bitcoin [13]. However, these corrections are viewed as healthy consolidations rather than bearish signals, with buyers stepping in above key support levels.

Conclusion: A Bullish Outlook Anchored in Fundamentals

Bitcoin’s bull run remains intact, supported by on-chain metrics, whale accumulation, and institutional adoption. The NUPL’s position in the 0.5–0.6 range historically precedes accelerated price moves, while whale activity and ETF inflows underscore structural strength. Regulatory clarity and corporate treasury allocations further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term narrative. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the asset’s fundamentals—backed by historical patterns and institutional confidence—suggest a continuation of the bull trend, with potential targets exceeding $130,000.

Source:
[1] Bitcoin - Net Unrealized Profit/Loss [NUPL] | Series [https://en.macromicro.me/series/45910/bitcoin-nupl]
[2] Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) Chart [https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/net-unrealized-profit-loss]
[3] August 2025 in Crypto: Alt-coin season gathers momentum ... [https://trakx.io/resources/insights/august-2025-in-crypto-alt-coin-season-gathers-momentum-as-the-bull-market-matures/]
[4] BTCUSDT.P trade ideas - Bitcoin [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDT.P/ideas/page-12/]
[5] Whale Wallet Growth and Institutional Accumulation Signal ... [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604933927]
[6] Whale-Driven Liquidity Squeeze in Bitcoin and Altcoins [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604940154]
[7] VanEck Crypto Monthly Recap for August 2025 [https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vaneck-crypto-monthly-recap-for-august-2025/]
[8] Bitcoin BTC ETF Net Inflow +2,569 BTC [https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-etf-net-inflow-2-569-btc]
[9] Who Controls Bitcoin Now? A 2025 Deep Dive into Whales ... [https://yellow.com/research/who-controls-bitcoin-now-a-2025-deep-dive-into-whales-etfs-regulation-and-sentiment]
[10] Crypto Safety: September 2025 Outlook Contents Export ... [https://aurpay.net/aurspace/safe-crypto-investments-2025-q3/]
[11] Crypto ETFs: Regulation, Returns & Rise of Innovation Pt. II [https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-etfs-regulation-returns-rise-innovation-pt-ii/]
[12] Bitcoin's Price History [https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp]
[13] Bitcoin BTC ETF Net Inflow +2,569 BTC [https://blockchain.news/flashnews/bitcoin-btc-etf-net-inflow-2-569-btc]