Bitcoin’s Bull Run Gathers Steam Amid Fed Rate Cuts and Trade Policy Shifts

The cryptocurrency market has entered a pivotal phase in 2025, with Bitcoin surging to $90,000 by mid-April—a 12% climb from its March low—amid shifting U.S. trade policies and Federal Reserve (Fed) easing measures. This rally reflects a complex interplay of macroeconomic forces, institutional adoption, and Bitcoin’s evolving role as a digital safe haven.

The Fed’s Dual Role: Liquidity and Caution

The Fed’s December 2024 rate cut to 4.25%-4.5% and its revised 2025 projection of two additional cuts have injected optimism into risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the Fed’s continued quantitative tightening (QT)—reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion monthly—has tempered near-term momentum.

While QT restricts liquidity, the Fed’s slower-than-expected inflation decline (projected at 2.5% in 2025) has fueled expectations of further easing. This creates a Goldilocks scenario for Bitcoin: enough stimulus to buoy demand without reigniting inflation fears.

Trade Tensions and Safe-Haven Dynamics

U.S.-China trade friction, including tariffs on Chinese imports and restrictions on chip exports, has sent investors scrambling for assets perceived as inflation hedges. Gold hit a record $3,360/ounce in April, but Bitcoin’s surge to $90,000 signals its growing rivalry as a digital alternative.

The trade war’s economic drag, however, has not dampened institutional appetite. On April 21, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw a record $381 million inflow—the largest since January 2024—led by Fidelity’s Bitcoin Fund ($87.6 million) and ARK’s ARKB ETF ($116 million).

Technical and Fundamental Drivers

Technically, Bitcoin’s breakout above $88,800—a key resistance level from its January 2024 peak—has validated its bullish trend. Analysts note a MACD crossover and RSI readings above 70, suggesting further gains could test the $100,000 threshold before a potential pullback.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin’s scarcity (21 million coins) and network activity—1.2 million active addresses in late April—bolster its appeal. Meanwhile, its correlation with equities (now 0.65 vs. 0.85 in 2023) underscores its divergence as a standalone asset class.

Risks and Roadmap to $100,000+

Despite optimism, risks linger. A Fed policy reversal or SEC delays in approving physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs could stall momentum. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. sanctions on crypto exchanges, also pose headwinds.

Yet, long-term projections remain bullish. Analysts at 21Shares and Standard Chartered predict Bitcoin could hit $138,500 by year-end, citing ETF adoption and Bitcoin’s role in corporate treasuries. Even skeptics acknowledge its resilience: Bitcoin has rebounded 20% from its April 8 low of $75,000, outperforming the S&P 500’s 8% decline during the same period.

Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Ascendancy Amid Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s climb to $90,000 in April 2025 is no fluke. It reflects a confluence of Fed easing, institutional capital flows, and Bitcoin’s unique positioning as a digital hedge against macroeconomic instability. While volatility remains, the fundamentals—ETF adoption, network health, and macro trends—suggest a path to six-figure valuations by year-end.

As trade wars and central bank policies reshape global finance, Bitcoin’s rise underscores a broader truth: in an era of uncertainty, scarcity and decentralization are the new pillars of wealth preservation.