Bitcoin's Bull Run May Extend 50% by June, Analysts Say

Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations have sparked debate about the sustainability of its current bull run. Analysts have been scrutinizing historical data to gauge the potential for further price appreciation. According to recent analytical data, Bitcoin has the potential for a 50% price increase by the start of June, indicating that the bull market may still have significant room for growth. This optimism is supported by the observation that Bitcoin's valuation metrics suggest the asset is currently at deep value levels, similar to those seen during previous bull seasons.

Historical data from Bitcoin halving cycles reveals a pattern of diminishing returns. Following the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin saw market gains peaking at around 6,000% to 8,000%, stabilizing at 1,600% to 4,000%. The second halving resulted in gains of around 2,000%, settling at 600%. After the third halving in May 2020, gains were modest, not exceeding 600%. The fourth cycle has seen peak gains of 60% post-halving, with analysts projecting maximum market gains between 50% and 150%. This suggests that while the growth potential is reducing as the market matures, there is still potential for further price growth.

Despite recent volatility, which saw Bitcoin drop to around $77,000 before rebounding over 10% to reclaim the $85,000 price zone, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock suggests that the market peak may not have been reached yet. Historically, Bitcoin has reached its market peak 12 to 18 months post-halving, suggesting significant appreciation between mid-2025 and late 2025. However, current market conditions, including institutional interest and recent government policies, may influence this timeline.

Stablecoin data also paints a similar narrative. In a March 14 tweet, IntoTheBlock indicated that stablecoin data might suggest that the market peak might not yet be in. This is as, historically, stablecoin supply peaks align with cycle highs. In April 2022, supply hit $187 billion — just as the bear market started. Now it is at $219 billion and still rising, suggesting the market likely remains in mid-cycle. Stablecoins continue to gain ground amid market uncertainty, pushing their combined market cap to around $219 billion this week. This is about $10 billion away from Ethereum’s market cap, a strong indicator of rising caution on the market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,391, reflecting a 1.64% decline over the past week. Despite the recent volatility, the analysis from IntoTheBlock provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's future performance. The data indicates that the current cycle still has room for growth, with potential for further price appreciation in the coming months. While Bitcoin's price action has deviated from historical post-halving trends, other indicators suggest that the cycle may still have room to run. Stablecoin activity and other market dynamics continue to support the notion that the bull run is far from over.