Bitcoin's Bull Run and Bearish Slump: Navigating Post-Trump Volatility

The 2024 U.S. election and Donald Trump's re-election ignited a whirlwind of speculation around Bitcoin's potential. From a 51% surge in the months before his inauguration to a 21% post-inauguration correction, Bitcoin's price trajectory has been a textbook case of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. Now, as Bitcoin consolidates below $105,000, investors face a critical question: Is this a buying opportunity or a prelude to deeper declines?

The Surge: Riding the Trump Rally

Bitcoin's meteoric rise from $70,000 in November 2024 to a record $111,891 by mid-January 2025 was fueled by trader euphoria over Trump's crypto-friendly rhetoric. Promises of a U.S. “bitcoin reserve,” regulatory clarity, and the elimination of capital gains taxes on Bitcoin ownership created a frenzy of speculative buying. Institutional investors piled in, with hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds like Abu Dhabi's Mubadala boosting exposure through Bitcoin ETFs.

But reality soon intervened.

The Dip: Reality Checks and Policy Delays

By late January, Bitcoin's price had plummeted 21% to $95,500—a stark reversal of fortunes. The “sell the news” dynamic kicked in as traders realized Trump's pro-crypto policies were slower to materialize. Key factors included:
- Trade Tensions: New tariffs introduced by the Trump administration spooked markets, reducing risk appetite.
- Regulatory Whiplash: The crypto working group's lack of urgency disappointed traders, while global crackdowns (e.g., India's proposed 30% crypto tax) added pressure.
- Fed Hawkishness: Rising interest rates made Bitcoin's zero-yield profile less attractive.

The sell-off deepened, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below its $93,266 “realized cost basis”—a metric tracking investors' average purchase price—a signal of capitulation.

Technical Analysis: Support Levels and Resistance

Today, Bitcoin's $105,060 price (as of June 6, 2025) reflects a precarious balancing act. Key technical levels suggest:

• Near-Term Support: The $100,000 psychological barrier and the $95,500 low form a critical support zone. A breach below $95,500 could test the $74,500 level, a multi-year support line.
• Resistance: The $107,000 mark (seen in late May 2025) must be overcome to negate bearish trends. A sustained close above this level could spark a rebound toward $120,000.

Institutional Demand: The Silent Catalyst

Despite macro headwinds, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain robust. 63% of Bitcoin's circulating supply has not moved in over a year, indicating long-term holder (HODLer) resilience. Institutions are also accumulating:
- ETF Flows: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw $437 million inflows in Q2 2025, signaling confidence in Bitcoin's long-term store-of-value role.
- Policy Catalysts: Trump's crypto working group is now expected to propose a Bitcoin ETF approval by year-end—a potential game-changer for legitimacy and liquidity.

Navigating the Crossroads: Entry Points and Risks

For bulls: The current consolidation below $105K offers a high-potential entry. A break above $107K would invalidate bearish scenarios, while institutional inflows and regulatory clarity could fuel a 2025 rebound.

For bears: Risks persist. A Fed rate hike or a renewed trade war could push Bitcoin below $95K, testing the $74.5K support.

Strategic Recommendations:

1. Dollar-Cost Average (DCA): Enter gradually between $95K and $105K, leveraging dips as buying opportunities.
2. Set Stops: Define risk at $74.5K, a multi-year floor.
3. Monitor Policy: Track the crypto working group's progress—ETF approval could trigger a 20%+ rally.

Conclusion: Bitcoin's Long-Term Trajectory

Bitcoin's post-Trump volatility underscores its dual nature: a speculative asset and an institutional play. While macro risks like Fed policy and trade tensions linger, Bitcoin's fundamentals—decentralization, limited supply, and rising institutional adoption—are unshaken. The $105K consolidation is a pivotal test: a breakout could reignite its bull run, while a breakdown demands caution. For patient investors, the path forward remains clear—buy the dips, but anchor to technical support.

Note: Historical data and forecasts are for illustrative purposes. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.