Bitcoin Bull Run to 2026: Pal Sees $300K BTC Amid M2 Surge
1min read Renowned macro analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul pal has forecasted that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market could extend into 2026, surpassing conventional expectations of a peak in 2025. In a recent presentation, Pal presented a compelling case for an extended uptrend in digital assets, supported by macroeconomic indicators, historical price behaviors, and liquidity metrics.
At the core of Pal's thesis lies the notion of Global M2 money supply, a metric tracking the total liquidity in circulation worldwide. Pal observed a close correlation between Bitcoin and other risk-on assets with changes in Global M2. He argued that if M2 continues to rise, it could drive the next phase of explosive crypto growth, similar to the conditions seen in 2017 when the dollar weakened considerably, and equity markets soared under US President Donald Trump's first term.
Pal's analysis also considers the business cycle, tracked through the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, an ISM reading above 50 signals economic expansion, which correlates with Bitcoin's price surges. Pal noted that if the ISM gets up to its normal cycle peak of somewhere between 56 and 65, it could give Bitcoin the magnitude of its rise. He suggested that if the ISM continues its upward trajectory, Bitcoin's price could exceed $300,000 or higher.
Addressing the altcoin market, Pal maintained that Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) remain key components of his portfolio. Despite Solana's recent drawdown of over 53%, he dismissed fears of a long-term decline, stating that Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of the cycle and Ethereum too, with Sui outperforming Solana. His broader view on altcoins is based on risk appetite shifts as financial conditions ease, historically leading to altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in the latter half of the cycle.
Pal emphasized that large pullbacks are a feature, not a bug of crypto bull markets. He detailed past corrections, pointing out that the current cycle has seen seven 20%+ corrections while maintaining a 600% gain from the lows. He warned traders against leverage and panic selling, reinforcing his "Don't F* This Up" thesis: "To make the money, to unf*** your future, you're going to have to learn to deal with 