Bitcoin Bull Run May End in 2-3 Months, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin's current bull run, while still active, is showing signs of slowing down. According to analyst Rekt Capital, the cryptocurrency is moving through its cycle more deliberately this time, with periods of strong rallies, quiet consolidations, and occasional pullbacks. This cycle has seen one of the longest re-accumulation periods after the halving event, lasting nearly eight months. This extended consolidation has allowed the Bitcoin market to cool off after a period of rapid gains, aligning prices with long-term trends. Although Bitcoin has reached new highs, the ascent has been slower compared to previous cycles.

The analyst suggests that the risk of a market drop from current Bitcoin prices is starting to outweigh the remaining upside. While prices could potentially rise to $130,000, $140,000, or even $150,000, there is also a significant risk of a 60-70% correction after the peak. With about 88% of the cycle already completed, the possibilities for further gains are diminishing, while the risk is increasing.

Bitcoin bull markets typically follow a pattern, peaking around 550 days after a halving. If history repeats, the market could top around October 2025. With only 2-3 months of likely upside left, most big gains are probably done. While some analysts predict a longer cycle extending into 2026, sticking to the proven timeline is considered safer.

In the short term, Bitcoin made a new local high but not a new all-time high. It is currently holding above a key trendline, and as long as the price stays above a certain level, the bullish outlook remains intact. If this support holds, Bitcoin could aim for the next resistance between certain price points. A clear break above a specific level would open the door for a move toward $130,000.

A small pullback is possible in the short term, but as long as the price stays above a certain level, there is no sign of a local top yet. The overall trend is still positive, with higher prices likely in the coming weeks. However, the analyst's forecast indicates that the bull run could peter out in 2-3 months, suggesting that investors should be cautious and prepared for potential market corrections.

Rekt Capital warns that many market participants are ignoring the halving cycle and predicting a possible “cycle extension” lasting until 2026. He advises against sidelining the halving cycle metric to “chase a new narrative,” such as Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 Money Supply. According to the analyst, looking at new metrics is an impulsive reaction and an emotional thing that could cloud judgment.

Several crypto analysts believe the typical Bitcoin halving cycle is less reliable now, given the surge in institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which was not present in previous cycles. However, Rekt Capital emphasizes the importance of relying on time-tested principles and metrics, as they provide a more stable foundation for decision-making.

According to the analyst's forecast, the Bitcoin bull run could peter out in 2-3 months. This prediction is based on the historical pattern of Bitcoin's price expansion following a halving event. If the current cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October 2025, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. This leaves only a small window of time and price expansion left in the current bull market.