Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over? Technical and Onchain Signals Point to an Early Bear Market

Bitcoin's Q3 2025 price collapse was driven by a confluence of factors, including aggressive selling by OG (original) whales-holders of Bitcoin for over seven years-who offloaded over 1 million BTC into the market. These whales, with historically low cost bases, capitalized on elevated prices to realize gains, creating a supply imbalance that institutional buyers failed to absorb. The result was a 44% drawdown in price, punctuated by failed retests of key levels like $112,000, which exposed weak momentum and leveraged position fragility.

By November 2025, the market structure has evolved into a "freeze" phase, where whale activity has slowed, and large holders appear to be waiting for a catalyst to dictate the next move. This phase, often observed before market bottoms, suggests a temporary equilibrium between bearish distribution and cautious accumulation. However, the absence of sustained institutional inflows-unlike the Q1 2025 rally-indicates a diminished capacity for price recovery.

Whale Behavior: Accumulation vs. Distribution

Whale activity in November 2025 reveals a nuanced picture. While OG whales continue to reduce their holdings, mid-sized holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have begun net accumulation, reversing a months-long sell-off. This trend is supported by on-chain metrics such as the Whale vs. Retail Delta, which has shown historically bullish patterns akin to Bitcoin's February–March 2025 bottom near $75,000.

However, the scale of accumulation remains insufficient to counterbalance OG whale distributions. For instance, the 1k–10k BTC group sold 112,600 BTC in the past 60 days, while large holders (10k+ BTC) added 26,300 BTC. This disparity highlights a market divided between panic-driven retail selling and strategic institutional buying. Meanwhile, exchange inflows-particularly to Binance-have spiked to $7.5 billion in 30 days, signaling potential short-term selling pressure.

Technical Levels: A Crucial Crossroads

Bitcoin's current price action is centered around the $90,000–$93,000 range, a critical psychological and technical pivot point. Breaking above $93,000 would test the next major resistance cluster between $93,000–$96,000, where approximately 500,000 BTC have historically changed hands. Analysts emphasize that overcoming this zone is essential for regaining momentum toward $100,000 and beyond.

Conversely, a failure to hold above $93,000 could trigger a retest of lower support levels, such as $88,000 or $84,570 as trading activity weakens. The $90,000–$93,000 range also serves as a dense cost basis distribution (CBD) cluster, where traders have historically resisted both sell-offs and rebounds. This technical ambiguity underscores the market's dependence on macroeconomic triggers rather than organic bullish momentum.

On-chain data paints a mixed picture. Exchange reserves have plummeted by 22.9% in a week, from 2,370,370 BTC to 1,833,670 BTC, indicating reduced liquidity and a shift toward long-term holding. This outflow is bullish in the long term but does not guarantee immediate price stability.

Derivatives activity, however, tells a different story. Open interest and trading volume have weakened, with a major whale placing a $2 billion long bet on Deribit, anticipating a rebound to $100,000–$118,000. Yet, declining derivatives activity and bearish SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) metrics suggest a market in retreat. These conflicting signals highlight the tension between short-term bearishness and long-term accumulation.

Macro Factors: Liquidity Crunch and Policy Uncertainty

The broader macroeconomic environment remains a headwind. The Federal Reserve's tightening cycle and delayed rate-cut expectations have reduced liquidity, traditionally a tailwind for risk assets. Additionally, rising Japanese yields and the U.S. government shutdown have exacerbated global liquidity constraints, compounding downward pressure on Bitcoin.

Analysts caution that external factors-such as Fed policy shifts or institutional ETF approvals-could override bearish on-chain signals in the short term. This interplay between macroeconomic conditions and on-chain dynamics creates a high degree of uncertainty for investors.

Conclusion: A Bear Market in the Making?

While Bitcoin's technical and on-chain indicators point to a late-cycle bearish phase, the market is not yet in a full bear market. The accumulation by mid-sized and large holders, coupled with declining exchange reserves, suggests a potential floor forming around $80,000–$90,000. However, the absence of sustained institutional inflows and the dominance of OG whale distributions indicate that the bull market's structural underpinnings have weakened.

Investors must remain vigilant, monitoring key resistance levels, whale activity, and macroeconomic catalysts. A definitive bear market may require a breach of $70,000 or a prolonged failure to reclaim $93,000. Until then, the market remains in a transitional phase-neither fully bullish nor bearish-where patience and risk management are paramount.