Bitcoin's Bull Market May Peak at $200,000 in 2025, Says Rekt Capital

Rekt Capital, a prominent analyst, has forecasted that Bitcoin's bull market will peak in 2025, with the price potentially reaching around $200,000. This prediction is based on historical price cycles and the current market trends. The analyst identifies a critical resistance level at $108,000, which Bitcoin must surpass to continue its upward trajectory. Once this level is breached, the price could initially rise to approximately $150,000 before consolidating and potentially reaching the $200,000 mark.

Rekt Capital's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's future trajectory could outpace global liquidity trends, positioning it as a leading economic indicator. This is supported by the disconnect observed between Bitcoin's 2021 peak and subsequent global liquidity movements. The analyst's insights are followed by over 546,700 individuals on X, indicating a significant influence on the cryptocurrency community.

The forecast also implies that Bitcoin's projected trajectory could influence other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, reflecting historical patterns of aligned price cycles. Developers and traders are actively discussing the implications of this analysis for future market strategies. The prediction raises questions about Bitcoin's future role in market predictability and its potential to forecast economic shifts.

Rekt Capital's insights may influence future trading and investment decisions, especially if patterns align with historical data. The analyst's forecast for 2025 suggests that the year will mark the peak of the Bitcoin bull market, followed by a bear market in 2026 and a bottoming out in 2027 to precede a new bull market. This prediction is based on the analyst's interpretation of historical price cycles and market trends.

Analysts have identified several key factors that could propel Bitcoin's price above the next significant hurdle at $110,000. The current weakening of Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) momentum suggests that the bull cycle may be entering its late stage. This phase is characterized by a slowdown in the MVRV ratio, which currently stands at 2.22, significantly below the overvalued zone historically above 3.7. This indicates that there is still room for growth, as a pickup in MVRV momentum would suggest that investors are holding longer, reducing selling pressure.

The recent de-escalation of geopolitical tensions has seen Bitcoin rebound strongly, reclaiming the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around $106,000. However, the market appears to be in a cool-down phase, with Bitcoin's onchain transfer volume and spot trading volume both down. The seven-day moving average of onchain transfer volume has dropped by approximately 32% to $52 billion from a peak of $76 billion in late May. Current spot trading volume sits around $7.7 billion, significantly lower than the cyclical peaks in this bull market. This divergence underscores the lack of speculative intensity and reduced investor engagement.

For Bitcoin to break out of its current range, analysts believe that spot and onchain transfer volume must recover. A high-volume push above $107,500 is seen as the first technical trigger to light the fuse for a potential breakout. This would indicate stronger investor demand and market conviction, as seen in past rallies where spot volume surges preceded price breakouts. Analysts predict that if Bitcoin can flip the $108,000-$110,000 resistance into new support, it could potentially reach levels above $165,000.

Bitcoin's price has been oscillating between $110,000 and $100,000, finding support in this range. The bullish case for Bitcoin hinges on its ability to flip the resistance between $108,000 and $110,000 into support. Analysts suggest that a pullback to take liquidity around the $105,000-$104,000 zone could gain momentum for a move higher. A break and a four-hour close above $109,000 could lead to new all-time highs. The $108,000-$110,000 range has become a target for traders due to high liquidity clusters up to $111,000.

Despite the current cooling off of Bitcoin's 50% rally to $112,000 from its April lows below $74,000, traders remain optimistic about its potential to reach higher targets in 2025. Several analysts have explained what must happen to increase Bitcoin's potential to break into price discovery in the following days or weeks. They believe that multiple bullish drivers remain in play and that historic cycle timing suggests a later 2025 peak, not a mid-year one. If Bitcoin breaks decisively above $108,000, analysts predict a rally towards $130,000, confirming the next leg of its bull run based on a bullish flag pattern.