Is Bitcoin's Bull Market Over? Interpreting On-Chain Signals and Investor Sentiment

The question of whether Bitcoin's bull market has ended has become a focal point for investors and analysts in November 2025. On-chain metrics, macroeconomic shifts, and diverging narratives from market commentators paint a complex picture. While platforms like CryptoQuant highlight bearish signals, bullish voices such as Hunter Horsley of Bitwise argue that the market is merely resetting for a stronger 2026. This analysis examines the credibility of these signals and their implications for Bitcoin's trajectory.

On-Chain Metrics: A Mixed Signal

Bitcoin's on-chain data in November 2025 reflects both fragility and resilience. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio has fallen to oversold levels, comparable to periods like the Tariff Tantrum in spring 2025 and the Yen implosion in August 2024 according to data. This suggests that a significant portion of holders are in a loss position, potentially reducing selling pressure and signaling a bottoming process. However, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has declined to 1.654, down 8.47% from November 12, as the price dropped 8.58% to $92,914 according to analysis. This decline aligns with bearish technical indicators, such as Bitcoin falling below its 365-day moving average a historically bearish development.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) further complicates the narrative. While the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for all holders remained steady at 1.004 despite the price drop according to analysis, the broader SOPR ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) fell to 1.35, its lowest since early 2024 according to data. This indicates a market reset, with long-term holders reducing distribution and short-term holders selling at a loss. Meanwhile, miner outflows and reserves have hit multi-year lows according to reports, exacerbating bearish sentiment.

CryptoQuant's Bearish Case: A Cyclical Downturn?

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index reached zero in November 2025-the first time since June 2022-highlighting extreme bearish sentiment according to data. The platform emphasizes that Bitcoin must stay above $94,000 to maintain bull market integrity according to analysis. If this level is breached, a bear cycle could be confirmed. Additionally, the fear/greed index hit its lowest level since March 2025 according to data, reflecting retail investor panic amid ETF outflows, which totaled $866 million in a single day according to reports.

CryptoQuant's analysis also underscores liquidity challenges, with stablecoin supply on exchanges declining and miner reserves shrinking according to data. These factors suggest a weakening market structure, where short-term holders are capitulating, and institutional demand is insufficient to offset outflows. The broader context of a global liquidity contraction further amplifies these risks according to reports.

Hunter Horsley's Bullish Narrative: A Mature Market Reset

Contrasting with CryptoQuant's bearish outlook, Hunter Horsley of Bitwise argues that the traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle is obsolete according to analysis. He attributes this to the maturation of the crypto market and the emergence of digital asset treasuries (DATs), which have masked bearish trends in 2025 according to data. Horsley contends that the current correction is not a full bear market but a necessary reset for a stronger 2026.

Horsley highlights Bitcoin's growing adoption as a store of value, akin to gold, and anticipates its eventual role as a payments network once its value is more widely accepted according to reports. He also points to increased institutional interest and infrastructure developments as long-term tailwinds according to analysis. For Horsley, the recent ETF outflows reflect short-term volatility rather than a structural breakdown, with long-term holders accumulating supply and stabilizing the market according to data.

Market Structure: Bear Market or Cyclical Correction?

The debate hinges on whether the current environment represents a bear market or a cyclical correction. CryptoQuant's focus on technical breakdowns and liquidity stress suggests a bearish phase, while Horsley's emphasis on structural improvements and institutional adoption leans bullish. The PnL Index and NUPL metrics, which indicate oversold conditions and reduced selling pressure according to data, could support a correction narrative, where holders are accumulating at lower prices.

However, the SOPR ratio and miner outflows according to reports challenge this view, as they reflect active distribution and capitulation. The key distinction lies in the timeframe: CryptoQuant's signals prioritize short-term technicals, whereas Horsley's analysis emphasizes long-term fundamentals.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Inflection Point

Bitcoin's market structure in November 2025 remains at a critical inflection point. While on-chain metrics like MVRV and SOPR signal bearish stress, the resilience of long-term holders and institutional demand suggest a potential floor. The outcome will likely depend on macroeconomic liquidity conditions and the pace of adoption. For now, the market is in a consolidation phase, with both bearish and bullish narratives holding merit. Investors must weigh the immediate risks highlighted by CryptoQuant against the structural opportunities outlined by Horsley, recognizing that the next move-up or down-could redefine Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026.