Bitcoin's Bull Market Hangs in the Balance: Will $95K Be Its Final Test?

Bitcoin's anticipated bull market is drawing attention as analysts offer divergent views on its peak and trajectory. Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that the current price of Bitcoin near its 20-week moving average could serve as a critical test of the bull market’s resilience [1]. He warned that if Bitcoin falls below the 50-week moving average—approximately $95,000–$96,000—this could signal the end of the current bullish cycle. Cowen noted historical patterns from the 2017 cycle, where similar corrections occurred before eventual rebounds, and suggested that altcoins may underperform until Ethereum achieves durable all-time highs [1].

Another analyst, known as ‘CRYPTO₿IRB,’ has predicted a more specific timeline, estimating that the bull market will peak in late October 2025 [2]. This forecast is based on historical bull market cycles and the number of days following the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024. With the current cycle standing at 1,017 days from the November 2022 low, and previous bull markets peaking between 1,060 and 1,100 days from their cycle lows, this places the anticipated peak within the next 50 days [2]. According to CRYPTO₿IRB, this timeline aligns with the typical Q3 market correction and places Bitcoin in the "hot zone" as it nears its cycle peak [2].

Technical indicators also suggest that Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture. According to crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin is currently sitting on the Bull Market Support Band, a historically reliable level that has supported price during corrections in past cycles [3]. This band has traditionally served as a foundation for Bitcoin’s price to bounce and continue its upward trajectory. However, recent price action has shown signs of divergence with global liquidity metrics, and Saint Pump—a market expert—suggested that a one-month liquidity pullback is expected in late September, coinciding with anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]. This liquidity shift, combined with technical bearish signals, could lead to a period of choppy price action and volatility until October, when liquidity conditions are expected to improve [3].

The broader macroeconomic context further complicates the outlook for Bitcoin. Cowen emphasized that seasonal weakness, Fed policy, and a likely S&P 500 pullback support the case for a correction [1]. He also noted that institutional adoption—driven by ETFs and corporate treasuries—has distinguished this cycle from previous ones, with a pro-crypto U.S. administration and potential Fed interventions adding layers of complexity [2]. Despite these factors, Cowen maintained that the September price action will be a defining moment for Bitcoin, with a sustained break above $95,000 serving as a validation of the bull market’s continuation [1].

Amid these predictions, André Dragosch, a financial analyst with a focus on macroeconomic trends, suggested that the Bitcoin halving has become less influential in shaping price action [6]. Instead, he argued that traders should focus on macroeconomic liquidity and interest rate environments, which are increasingly driving market sentiment [6]. This shift marks a transition from event-driven narratives to macro-sensitive strategies, suggesting that long-term investors should prioritize broader economic conditions over short-term supply-side events [6]. Dragosch emphasized that institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs and futures markets are likely to play a key role in sustaining the bullish momentum [6].

As the market awaits the potential peak and any possible corrections, investors are advised to remain cautious and diversified. Cowen recommended a 80/20 Bitcoin-Ethereum allocation for optimal risk-adjusted returns, with a pivot back to altcoins only after Bitcoin confirms higher highs [1]. Meanwhile, technical support levels remain key, with Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $93,000–$98,000 seen as a critical barometer for the bull trend’s health [3]. If Bitcoin can sustain above this range, it could signal continued institutional confidence and broader market resilience [3].

Source:

[1] Dipping Below $95,000 Would End Bitcoin's Bull Market, Analyst Warns (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dipping-below-95-000-end-143708359.html)

[2] Bitcoin Bull Market Ending in 50 Days, Says Analyst (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-bull-market-ending-in-50-days-says-analyst/)

[3] Bitcoin Finds Crucial Support On Bull Market Band (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/99679-bitcoin-bull-market-band-support)

[4] The Bitcoin halving clock is ticking and it's exciting (https://www.worldcoinindex.com/news/the-bitcoin-halving-clock-is-ticking-and-it-s-exciting-%E2%80%93-fleetminer-cloud-mining-guarantees-income-before-the-massive-supply-shakeup-sign-up-now-and-get-15)

[5] Bitcoin Halving Countdown (Live) Chart (https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/halving-countdown)

[6] BTC 2025 Macro Cycle: Andre Dragosch Says Bitcoin Halving Impact Diminished and Macro Drivers Back in Focus (https://blockchain.news/flashnews/btc-2025-macro-cycle-andre-dragosch-says-bitcoin-halving-impact-diminished-and-macro-drivers-back-in-focus)