Bitcoin's Bull Market Enters Late Cycle: Timing the Top and Positioning for Altseason

Bitcoin’s bull market has entered a late-cycle phase, marked by a convergence of technical, on-chain, and institutional signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to overbought levels near 73, a historical precursor to corrections or profit-taking phases [1]. This aligns with a bull flag pattern, where a breakout above $116,000 could target higher levels, but also raises caution about overvaluation risks. Meanwhile, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio stands at 1.51, reflecting growing utility-driven demand and a market nearing its pricing cycle’s upper bound [1]. The NVT Golden Cross, currently at 1.98, is approaching the 2.2 threshold—a level historically associated with local tops [1].

On-chain metrics further reinforce this narrative. The MVRV Z-Score and Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple indicate sustained accumulation by long-term holders, mirroring patterns seen in late bear markets or early bull recoveries [1]. The Percent Supply in Profit (PSiP) remains above 91%, suggesting limited selling pressure and a market anchored by profitability [2]. Whale activity, including the accumulation of 225,320 BTC since March 2025, underscores structural strength [1]. Institutional adoption, accelerated by regulatory developments like the BITCOIN Act of 2025 and $86.79 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets, positions Bitcoin as a macroeconomic hedge and reserve asset [1].

However, the maturing bull cycle is not without risks. Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the S&P 500 and uncertainty around interest rate policy and stablecoin regulation pose macroeconomic headwinds [1]. Yet, the alignment of technical and on-chain signals suggests a high-probability environment for further appreciation, contingent on macroeconomic stability.

As Bitcoin consolidates, capital is rotating into altcoins, signaling the dawn of an altseason. Bitcoin’s market dominance has declined from 64% in early 2025 to 59% by August, a classic precursor to altcoin outperformance [2]. The Altcoin Season Index, which rose from 12 in April to 53 by August, confirms growing interest in altcoins [2]. Ethereum leads this transition, with its market share at 57.3% and institutional adoption bolstered by Pectra and Dencun hard forks, which enhanced scalability and attracted $45 billion in DeFi TVL [3]. The ETH/BTC ratio of 0.037 highlights Ethereum’s role as a bridge between Bitcoin and altcoins [3].

High-conviction altcoins like Zora, Spark, Sahara AI, and PancakeSwap are gaining traction. Zora’s integration into the Base App and Spark’s liquidity growth via CookieDAO campaigns exemplify sectoral innovation [1]. Sahara AI’s fusion of AI and blockchain, backed by Binance and Polychain, and PancakeSwap’s undervalued DEX model further diversify opportunities [1]. Institutional adoption of Ethereum, including 64 companies adding it to treasuries and $12.1 billion in U.S. spot ETF inflows, validates this shift [3].

Investors must navigate altseason’s volatility with disciplined risk management. Position sizing, diversification, and exit planning are critical to capitalize on opportunities while mitigating downside risks [1].

**Source:[1] Is Bitcoin Approaching a Cycle Top in Late 2025? A [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-approaching-cycle-top-late-2025-convergence-technical-chain-institutional-signals-2508/][2] On-chain analysis week 25/2025: Bitcoin price rediscovery [https://medium.com/@whatexchange/on-chain-analysis-week-25-2025-bitcoin-price-rediscovery-signal-eae7ab7437ad][3] Ethereum's Upward Momentum and the Altcoin Season of 2025 [https://www.ainvest.com/news/ethereum-upward-momentum-altcoin-season-2025-uncovering-1000x-opportunities-2508/]