Bitcoin Bull Market Ends At $82K, Says CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has asserted that the Bitcoin bull market has concluded, with prices currently hovering around the $82K mark. Ju's analysis is based on key technical indicators, specifically the relationship between Realized Cap, Market Cap, and selling pressure.

Ju's prediction is grounded in the interplay between Bitcoin’s Realized Cap and its market capitalization. Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s value using the price at which each BTC held in wallets was transferred, while Market Cap measures value by multiplying the circulating BTC supply with current prices. Ju argues that market capitalization alone is not the best way to track the Bitcoin Bull Market. When selling pressure is low, small Bitcoin purchases can drive market capitalization to new highs, inflating the paper value of BTC holdings. Conversely, when selling pressure is high, even significant purchases fail to trigger a price rally. Onchain data shows that while Bitcoin’s Realized Cap is rising, its market capitalization is declining, indicating bearish sentiment. Ju notes that fresh capital is entering the market, but prices are not responding, signaling the end of the Bitcoin bull market.

Ju emphasizes that when even large capital inflows cannot push prices upward, it is a clear sign of a bear market. Despite positive fundamentals and large acquisitions, on-chain indicators for Bitcoin are underwhelming. The top cryptocurrency is consolidating within a bearish pennant, suggesting further price declines. While some analysts speculate about a potential decoupling of Bitcoin prices from the S&P 500, Ju predicts a near-term rally is unlikely. He estimates that it could take up to six months for Bitcoin to recover from the current bear market.

Ju's analysis highlights the importance of considering multiple technical indicators when assessing the state of the Bitcoin market. While market capitalization can provide insights, it is not the sole determinant of market trends. The interplay between Realized Cap and selling pressure offers a more comprehensive view of market dynamics. Ju's predictions, while grim, are based on historical data and current market conditions, providing a realistic assessment of the Bitcoin market's future trajectory.