Bitcoin Bull Cycle Peaks Expected Late September to Mid-October 2025

Bitcoin is currently in the latter stages of its bull cycle, with a potential market peak anticipated within the next few months, according to market analyst Rekt Capital. The analyst compared the current market structure to past halving cycles, using historical timeframes to estimate Bitcoin's position. According to Rekt Capital's analysis, Bitcoin typically peaks between 518 and 550 days after halving, a pattern observed in both the 2016 and 2020 cycles. The market is approximately 88% through the typical post-halving period, suggesting that the next cycle top could occur between late September and mid-October 2025.

Rekt Capital cautioned against extending expectations too far beyond historical patterns, as this could cause investors to miss the window of opportunity. One notable feature of this cycle is the longest post-halving reaccumulation period in Bitcoin’s history, with BTC consolidating for eight months after the April 2024 halving. This period was necessary to realign the cycle with historical trends, offsetting the strong pre-halving upside that pushed the asset’s price significantly ahead of schedule.

As Bitcoin continues to consolidate just below its all-time high, Rekt Capital noted that similar phases of slowing momentum or “price discovery corrections” occurred at this stage in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. These periods often led to renewed momentum heading into the final phase of the bull market. However, as the cycle matures, the risk-to-reward ratio begins to shift. While some upside may remain, the scale of potential gains becomes smaller compared to the downside risk of a full-cycle correction. Historical drawdowns of 60–70% following prior bull market tops underscore the importance of managing risk and preparing for volatility.

Rekt Capital also addressed the idea of cycle extensions, noting that while the current cycle could stretch slightly, using those assumptions to delay profit-taking carries risk. The analyst suggested sticking to past patterns and treating anything beyond the historical window as “bonus time” rather than a guarantee of further upside. The focus for investors should now shift toward preparing for that window, protecting gains, and not getting distracted by newer cycle narratives that lack historical backing.

Bitcoin has been on a remarkable bull run, with its price surging past $110,000 earlier this week. This surge has sparked discussions among analysts about the potential for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs. According to some analysts, Bitcoin could test $90,000 again this year, indicating a volatile but potentially lucrative period ahead. The recent price action suggests that Bitcoin is consolidating after a significant breakout, which is a common pattern before the next major price movement. This consolidation phase could be a prelude to further gains, as historical data shows that Bitcoin often reasserts its leadership in the crypto market following such periods.

The upcoming crypto bull run in 2025 is anticipated to surpass previous market surges, driven by the maturation of crypto infrastructure. This maturation includes advancements in technology, regulatory clarity, and increased institutional adoption. These factors are expected to create a more stable and robust environment for crypto assets, potentially leading to unprecedented growth. The dominance of Bitcoin in the crypto market is likely to be reasserted as the infrastructure matures, positioning it as a leading asset in the space.

Analysts have varying predictions for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Some analysts forecast that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 this year. However, there are more bullish analysts who predict that Bitcoin could climb even higher, potentially surpassing $500,000 by the end of the year. These predictions are based on the current bullish sentiment and the potential for further institutional investment in Bitcoin. The proposed increase to the US debt ceiling, which could reach $5 trillion, is also seen as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin's price, as traders believe that increased government spending could drive demand for the digital asset.

Despite the bullish outlook, it is important to note that there are still headwinds that could impact Bitcoin's price. These include regulatory uncertainties, market volatility, and potential shifts in investor sentiment. However, the overall consensus among analysts is that Bitcoin is deep into its bull run, and the next phase could see significant gains for the digital asset. As the crypto market continues to evolve, Bitcoin's role as a leading asset is likely to be reinforced, making it an attractive investment option for both retail and institutional investors.