Bitcoin's Bull Cycle: Has the Peak Passed or Is the Best Yet to Come?

The question of whether Bitcoin's 2025 bull cycle has reached its peak or is still in its early stages has become a focal point for investors and analysts. With the cryptocurrency trading near $114,000 and institutional adoption accelerating, the interplay between macroeconomic trends and on-chain metrics offers a nuanced picture. This analysis synthesizes recent data to determine whether the market is poised for a prolonged ascent or if caution is warranted.

On-Chain Indicators Signal Continued Growth

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics paint a picture of a market in accumulation mode, far from the euphoric overvaluation that typically precedes a peak. According to CoinGlass, all 30 top Bitcoin cycle indicators remain inactive as of October 22, 2025, meaning none have reached historical highs-a strong signal that the bull phase is still intact, as a Coinfomania analysis shows. Key metrics such as the MVRV Z-Score (1.94) and Puell Multiple (1.11) are well below the overvaluation thresholds of 3 and 2.5, respectively, indicating stability and no signs of a speculative bubble, the Coinfomania analysis notes.

Long-term holders (LTHs) control 15.13 million BTC, with selling levels remaining below 13.5 million, suggesting continued accumulation rather than profit-taking, per the Coinfomania analysis. The Ahr999 Index, a sentiment gauge, stands at 0.85-only 21% of the euphoric threshold of 4-while the Bitcoin Bubble Index at 13.48 (out of 80) further confirms the absence of overvaluation, the Coinfomania analysis adds. The Rainbow Chart, a visual tool for market phases, scores 3 out of 5, placing Bitcoin in the "HODL" phase rather than a sell-off.

Historical patterns also support a prolonged bull run. Major peaks typically occur 12-18 months after halving events, with the most recent halving in April 2024 pointing to a potential peak between late 2025 and early 2026, according to Coinfomania. Institutional adoption, evidenced by ETF inflows exceeding $20 billion in the current quarter, has stabilized Bitcoin's price and reinforced its role as a store of value, the Coinfomania analysis observes.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Fuel the Bull Run

The macroeconomic landscape in 2025 has been a tailwind for Bitcoin, as a CryptofrontNews analysis notes: the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2025, coupled with declining long-term bond yields and a weaker dollar, have created a risk-on environment. The CryptofrontNews analysis reports digital asset investment products recorded $921 million in inflows last week, with Bitcoin leading at $931 million, pushing year-to-date totals to $30.2 billion. This trend reflects a shift in perception: Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a long-term diversification tool rather than a speculative asset, the CryptofrontNews piece adds.

The Bitcoin-backed lending market has also surged, with platforms like Ledn originating $392 million in Q3 2025, contributing to a cumulative total of $2.8 billion, as reported in the Quarterly Digital Assets Review. This growth is driven by Bitcoin's price surpassing $100,000, which has created a wealth effect, encouraging investors to leverage their holdings without selling, the Quarterly Digital Assets Review notes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's integration into decentralized finance (DeFi) has boosted liquidity, with total value locked (TVL) reaching $8.29 billion, according to the Quarterly Digital Assets Review.

The Path Forward: $150,000 in Sight?

While the bull case remains strong, investors must navigate potential headwinds. Bitcoin's dominance at 59.1% is approaching the 65% signal level, which historically precedes altcoin rotations, the Coinfomania analysis notes. However, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio at 48.9-below the euphoria threshold of 70-suggests the market is still in a healthy accumulation phase, per Coinfomania.

Price-wise, Bitcoin's trajectory to $150,000 is supported by metrics like the VCDD (Volatility-Adjusted Cumulative Daily Demand) and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). The STH (Short-Term Holder) support level at $92,902 has historically led to 20-30% gains when tested, while the LTH resistance at $147,937 often precedes corrections before renewed upward momentum, according to a Coinotag article. The Coinotag piece further predicts that institutional adoption and evolving global asset dynamics could extend the bull cycle beyond traditional four-year patterns.

Conclusion: A Resilient Bull Market

Bitcoin's bull cycle in 2025 shows no signs of peaking. On-chain metrics indicate a market in accumulation, while macroeconomic factors-Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and institutional adoption-provide a supportive backdrop. While short-term volatility and altcoin rotations may occur, the broader trend suggests the best is yet to come. Investors should monitor key indicators like the Ahr999 Index and Bitcoin's dominance, but for now, the data points to a market with room to grow.