Bitcoin Bull Cycle May Peak in 2025, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin's current bull cycle is approaching a potential peak, according to the analysis of crypto analyst Rekt Capital. The analyst suggests that the bull run may be nearing its end, with only 2-3 months of potential upside remaining. This prediction is based on the observation of Bitcoin's cyclical patterns, which typically see strong rallies followed by periods of consolidation and occasional pullbacks before reaching a peak. The current cycle has already seen about 88% of its gains, with the risk of a market drop starting to outweigh the remaining upside.

Historical data shows that previous Bitcoin cycle tops occurred 365, 520, and 550 days after halving events in 2013, 2017, and 2021, respectively. The current cycle has reached 400 days, surpassing the 2013 timeframe but remaining below the 2017 and 2021 periods. This places the potential cycle top between September and November 2025, based on time-based projections. If Bitcoin follows the 2017 pattern, a 520-day interval would place the cycle peak in mid-September 2025. A timeline similar to the 2021 top would extend the period to 550 days, pointing to October 2025. A longer interval of 580 days would imply a possible top in November 2025.

Rekt Capital noted that while Bitcoin prices could still rise to new highs, there is also a significant risk of a 60-70% correction after the peak. This is consistent with the view that Bitcoin bull markets usually follow a pattern, peaking about 550 days after a halving event. If history repeats, the market could top around October 2025, with most big gains already realized. The analyst also pointed out that the current cycle saw one of the longest re-accumulation periods ever after the halving event, lasting nearly eight months. This longer than expected consolidation allowed the Bitcoin market to cool off after a period of rapid gains, bringing prices back in line with long-term trends. While Bitcoin did eventually climb to new highs, the move was much slower compared to past cycles.

In the short term, the analyst noted that Bitcoin made a new local high but not a new all-time high. As long as the price stays above a key trendline, the bullish outlook remains intact. If this support holds, Bitcoin could aim for the next resistance between $110,400 and $113,500. A clear break above $113,500 would open the door for a move toward $130,000. However, a small pullback is possible in the short term, but as long as the price stays above $107,280, there’s no sign of a local top yet. The overall trend is still positive, with higher prices likely in the coming weeks.

Rekt Capital acknowledged that many market participants have ignored the halving cycle and predict a possible “cycle extension” lasting until 2026. However, the analyst emphasized the importance of relying on time-tested principles and metrics, rather than chasing new narratives. The analyst also noted that the current cycle saw one of the longest re-accumulation periods ever after the halving event, lasting nearly eight months. This longer than expected consolidation allowed the Bitcoin market to cool off after a period of rapid gains, bringing prices back in line with long-term trends. While Bitcoin did eventually climb to new highs, the move was much slower compared to past cycles.

Several crypto analysts believe the typical Bitcoin halving cycle is less reliable now, given the surge in institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which was not present in previous cycles. However, Rekt Capital maintains that sticking to the proven timeline is safer. The analyst also noted that the current cycle saw one of the longest re-accumulation periods ever after the halving event, lasting nearly eight months. This longer than expected consolidation allowed the Bitcoin market to cool off after a period of rapid gains, bringing prices back in line with long-term trends. While Bitcoin did eventually climb to new highs, the move was much slower compared to past cycles.