Bitcoin's Bull Cycle Nears Peak as Profit-Taking and Technical Signals Clash

Bitcoin’s current bull market cycle has entered a historically late phase, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, with profit-taking metrics and capital flow patterns mirroring those observed during previous cycle peaks in 2015–2018 and 2018–2022. The circulating supply of Bitcoin has spent 273 consecutive days above the +1 standard deviation profit band, a duration second only to the 335-day streak seen in the 2015–2018 cycle. Long-term holders (LTHs) have already realized more profits than in all but one prior cycle, signaling mounting sell-side pressure. Despite this, new and short-term holders are accumulating, offsetting some of the selling pressure.

On-chain data further underscores the market’s positioning. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) currently stands at 0.987, indicating short-term investors are selling at a loss, a pattern historically associated with local price bottoms. Broader indicators like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) suggest the market has not yet reached its peak. For instance, the NUPL ratio reflects that Bitcoin’s market cap is growing faster than profit-taking, a sign of overheating that historically has been favorable for strategic profit-taking.

The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut has introduced mixed signals for Bitcoin. While lower borrowing costs typically support risk assets, the immediate crypto market reaction has been muted, with Bitcoin struggling to hold above $115,000 post-announcement. Analysts note that the rate cut, coupled with a dovish policy stance, could eventually benefit Bitcoin in the long term but may trigger short-term volatility as markets digest the implications. The Fed’s decision also comes amid a backdrop of political pressure, with President Donald Trump advocating for deeper cuts to stimulate the economy. However, technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) suggest fading momentum, with the RSI below 50 and MACD in a slightly bearish position.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has predicted a potential cycle top for Bitcoin within the next three months, aligning with historical patterns where peaks typically occur in Q4 of the post-halving year. He notes that the current cycle mirrors prior ones, with a local top in August followed by a September dip, and the September low potentially already in place. Cowen also anticipates that altcoins may rally once Bitcoin’s bull market concludes, a pattern observed in previous cycles.

Technical analysis highlights a critical juncture for Bitcoin. The price has formed a rising wedge on the weekly chart, a bearish reversal pattern, with downside targets at $114,400 and $113,200 if support breaks. Conversely, a confirmed close above $116,900 could signal a bullish continuation toward $126,700, based on the cup-and-handle pattern. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $109,500 and the 200-day EMA at $105,300 serve as key support levels to watch.

Market participants remain divided on the near-term outlook. While some view the current correction as a buying opportunity, others caution against overextending positions given the elevated volatility and liquidity clusters between $108,000 and $112,000. The QuantumResearch On-chain Z-score indicator, which combines NUPL, SOPR, and MVRV into a composite score, reinforces the idea of overbought conditions, with adaptive thresholds suggesting caution.

In summary, Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on the interplay of macroeconomic factors, technical indicators, and market sentiment. While the late-cycle dynamics and profit-taking pressures suggest a potential top in the coming months, the path to a new all-time high remains contingent on maintaining key support levels and navigating the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Source: [1] BTC Cycle Nears Late Stage But New ATH Could Arrive in Weeks (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-cycle-enters-late-phase-as-profit-taking-metrics-spike) [2] Here’s When Bitcoin Could Hit the Cycle Top if History Repeats … (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/09/18/heres-when-bitcoin-could-hit-the-cycle-top-if-history-repeats-itself-according-to-analyst-benjamin-cowen/) [3] MVRV SOPR and NUPL Indicators point Potential Gains (https://cryptonewsland.com/crypto-quant-cycle-indicators-report-mvrv-sopr-and-nupl-indicate-potential-gains) [4] On-chain Zscore | QuantumResearch — Indicator by (https://www.tradingview.com/script/1dqfAc3R-On-chain-Zscore-QuantumResearch/) [5] Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) | BM Pro (https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/) [6] BTC Struggles to Hold $115K Despite Dovish Fed Shift (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-loses-dollar115k-level-after-fed-rolls-out-quarter-point-rate-cut) [7] Fed Cuts Rates to 4.25% — Will Bitcoin Rally or Crash Before … (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-cuts-rates-4-25-215114298.html) [8] Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Rise or Fall After Fed Rate Cuts (https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/16/bitcoin-price-prediction-will-btc-rise-or-fall-after-fed-rate-cuts/) [9] Bitcoin Price Braces for September 17 Fed Cut Decision This Week (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/17/bitcoin-price-braces-for-september-17-fed-cut-decision-this-week/)