Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-05

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) edged higher amid mixed momentum and volatile consolidation ahead of key resistance.
• Price carved a bullish wedge pattern on 15-minute charts with a 112,000–113,500 consolidation range.
• A strong volume spike in the final 30 minutes of the 24-hour window hinted at accumulation.
• RSI hovered near overbought territory but remained within range, signaling cautious optimism.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price tested the upper band at 113,225, indicating heightened short-term volatility.

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) opened the 24-hour window at $109,457.36 on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET and closed at $111,411.27 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05. The price peaked at $113,384.62 and dropped to a low of $111,127.56. The total volume traded over the period was 11,104.04 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.235B.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish wedge pattern on the 15-minute chart, bounded by a rising support line and a descending resistance line, with the upper boundary reaching $113,384.62. The structure broke higher at 12:45 ET, closing the pattern with a bullish confirmation. A doji formed at $111,127.56, indicating indecision before a rally resumed. Immediate support sits at $111,127.56, while key resistance is at $113,225.37 (previous high).

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a bullish alignment, with price above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA in a golden cross formation, signaling a shift to a more bullish medium-term bias. The 100-period MA acted as a dynamic support at $111,900.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26 MACD histogram showed a moderate expansion in bullish momentum in the final hours of the 24-hour window, confirming a late-day rally. RSI reached 69, near overbought territory, but remained within a normal range, suggesting buyers remained in control without signs of exhaustion. The oscillator did not exceed 70, suggesting limited risk of a sharp correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the late hours of the window, with price reaching the upper band at $113,225.37 before retreating slightly. The 20-period band width was at its widest point in the 24-hour window, indicating heightened volatility. Price remains above the midline, suggesting continued bullish pressure, though a reversal near the upper band could trigger profit-taking.

Volume & Turnover

Volume saw a notable increase during the final 30-minute interval, with a 500 BTC spike and a $7.5M turnover boost. This divergence from earlier bearish price action (at $112,181.46) suggested accumulation by longs. Notional turnover also spiked during the rally, indicating active buying at higher levels. However, volume remained below average for a breakout, suggesting limited confirmation of a sustained move above $113,500.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute swing high of $113,384.62 and the recent low at $111,127.56, price currently sits at the 23.6% retracement level at $112,589.35. The 61.8% level is at $112,258.89, a potential support zone if the rally halts. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the $109,452–$113,384.62 move is at $111,895, aligning with the 100-period MA and providing a potential floor for near-term consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy emphasizes a breakout-based approach, using the wedge pattern and 15-minute MA alignment as entry signals, with a stop-loss just below the wedge base and a target at the 61.8% retracement level. A long entry on a close above $113,225.37 with a stop at $112,344.0 would have captured a 981.37-point move, or a ~0.88% gain. The risk-reward ratio of 1:0.9 supports the strategy’s use in a high-volatility environment where price is testing a defined structure and showing consistent bullish momentum in the final hours of the 24-hour window.