Can Bitcoin Break and Hold Above $90,000 Before Year-End? Derivatives-Driven Price Suppression and the December 26 Options Expiry

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been defined by a structural range bound between $81,000 and $93,000, with derivatives markets playing a central role in suppressing directional momentum. As of November 26, 2025, Bitcoin traded near $90,500, having briefly reclaimed the $90,000 level after a week-long decline according to market data. However, the question of whether it can sustain a move above $90,000 before year-end hinges on two critical factors: the mechanics of derivatives-driven price suppression and the looming $28 billion December 26 options expiry.

Derivatives-Driven Price Suppression: A Structural Constraint

Bitcoin's range-bound behavior is not a natural market phenomenon but a product of structural imbalances in derivatives markets. Perpetual futures open interest has collapsed from $50 billion to $28 billion since mid-December, signaling a de-risking of speculative positions. Funding rates have remained near neutral, indicating a lack of conviction in either bullish or bearish positioning. This neutrality suggests that leverage is no longer a driver of price movement, leaving Bitcoin's trajectory to be dictated by institutional-grade plumbing and fragmented liquidity.

Exchange inventory is at record lows (2.751 million BTC), while $112 billion is locked in U.S. spot ETFs. Yet, Bitcoin remains trapped in a $12,000 range due to weak inter-exchange flows and thin order books, particularly on platforms like Kraken and Coinbase. Small to medium-sized trades can exert outsized price impacts when arbitrage activity is low, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of volatility suppression.

The December 26 Options Expiry: A Mechanical Catalyst

The December 26 options expiry represents a $28 billion notional value event, with over 50% of Deribit's open interest set to expire. This expiry is concentrated in call options at strike prices between $100,000 and $116,000, reflecting a bullish bias in positioning. However, the point of maximum pain-the price level where the most contracts lose value-is estimated at $96,000. This creates a mechanical tug-of-war: options dealers must delta hedge as expiry approaches, generating selling pressure if Bitcoin remains below $96,000 and buying pressure if it surges above.

The expiry's impact is amplified by holiday season liquidity constraints. With thin trading volumes, even routine hedging activity can trigger sharp price swings. Analysts warn that the combination of record expiry size and reduced liquidity could push Bitcoin toward a "pinning" scenario, where price action gravitates toward $85,000–$86,000 as dealers neutralize positions. Put options at $85,000 reflect strong support, while call options at $100,000 indicate resistance.

Can Bitcoin Break Above $90,000 Before Year-End?

Bitcoin's ability to break above $90,000 hinges on whether it can overcome the $93,000 overhead supply wall-a level where large-cap investors have historically offloaded BTC according to on-chain data. While the November 26 price recovery to $91,514 suggests short-term bullish momentum, derivatives mechanics remain a headwind. The December 26 expiry's delta hedging activity could either catalyze a breakout or force a retest of $85,000.

A key consideration is the role of ETF flows, which have become a source of noise rather than a directional signal. Net inflows fluctuate daily in response to macroeconomic data, not crypto-native fundamentals. This lack of clarity in on-chain demand further complicates Bitcoin's path to a sustained breakout.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Scenario

Bitcoin's price action in the final weeks of 2025 will be a test of derivatives-driven resilience. While the November 26 rally to $91,514 hints at short-term optimism, the December 26 expiry poses a significant mechanical risk. If Bitcoin fails to break above $93,000 before the expiry, the delta hedging activity could push it toward $85,000–$86,000, reinforcing the range-bound dynamic. Conversely, a successful breakout above $93,000 could trigger a cascade of call option liquidity, temporarily alleviating the overhead supply constraint.

Investors must monitor the interplay between expiry-driven mechanics and liquidity conditions. Until derivatives markets scale, macroeconomic clarity emerges, or new capital enters the ecosystem, Bitcoin's structural stagnation is likely to persist.