When Does Bitcoin Break the $100,000 Ceiling? Analyst Shares Expected Timeline

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $697 million in inflows on January 5, 2026, marking a significant jump in investor demand according to FXStreet. This followed $471 million in inflows on January 2, the largest single-day inflow in nearly three months. The inflows reflect growing institutional and retail interest in crypto assets after two months of net outflows in late 2025.

Ethereum and XRP ETFs also saw inflows, though with more cautious momentum. Ethereum ETFs added $168 million in inflows on January 5, while XRP ETFs rebounded with $46 million in inflows after a previous net outflow. These movements indicate mixed investor sentiment across altcoins.

Bitcoin's price has remained range-bound between $87,000 and $93,000 since early January, with ETF inflows stabilizing prices during thin liquidity conditions. The cryptocurrency has traded around $93,000, supported by the 50-day EMA and showing signs of bullish momentum through MACD indicators.

Why Did ETF Flows Turn Positive in Early 2026?

Analysts attribute the renewed inflows to the "clean-slate effect" of the new year, as investors reset portfolios and rebalance risk exposure. The surge follows months of outflows in late 2025, which totaled $3.48 billion in November and $1.09 billion in December. Early 2026 inflows suggest a return of confidence in crypto markets.

The timing coincides with Bitcoin's price recovery from a multi-month consolidation phase. Institutional demand, particularly from BlackRock and Fidelity, has been a major driver of inflows, reinforcing the narrative of a structural shift in market dynamics.

How Are ETF Inflows Affecting Bitcoin's Price Action?

Bitcoin has held above its 50-day EMA, a key technical support level, with the MACD line maintaining a positive divergence. A close above the 100-day EMA at $96,651 could signal stronger recovery potential toward $100,000.

However, outflows have recently reversed some of the early gains. On January 6 and 7, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $243 million and $486 million in outflows, respectively. The trend continued on January 8 with a $398 million net outflow, indicating a cooling in risk appetite.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring whether ETF inflows will sustain or reverse. A continued outflow trend could signal a temporary correction rather than a long-term bearish shift.

Technical indicators like RSI and EMA remain in a bullish range for Bitcoin, but further confirmation will be needed to break the $96,000 threshold. Ethereum's RSI has stabilized at 65, suggesting possible consolidation before the next breakout.

Institutional participation remains a key factor. BlackRock's IBIT continues to lead inflows, but outflows from Fidelity and Ark ETFs indicate variability in institutional strategies.

The market is also watching for a structural shift in supply dynamics. Consistent ETF inflows could absorb circulating Bitcoin supply, potentially creating a long-term supply-demand imbalance.

Bitcoin's ability to maintain its position above key EMAs and break through $96,000 will be critical in determining whether the $100,000 ceiling becomes a realistic target.