Has Bitcoin Bottomed in Late 2025?

The question of whether Bitcoin has reached a cyclical low in late 2025 has become a focal point for investors and analysts, as technical and on-chain signals reveal a complex interplay of bullish and bearish forces. While the price remains trapped in a fragile $81K–$89K range, key metrics suggest that the market may be nearing a critical inflection point. This analysis synthesizes on-chain behavior, Elliott Wave patterns, Fibonacci retracement levels, and long-term holder (LTH) activity to assess whether Bitcoin has indeed bottomed-or if further downside remains.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation Amid Structural Weakness

Bitcoin's on-chain activity in late 2025 reflects a market in transition. The "liveliness" indicator, which measures the ratio of transacted coins to those held, has risen to levels historically associated with bull markets. This suggests renewed demand and a reactivation of dormant supply, even as liquidity thins and realized losses surge. Glassnode data highlights parallels to the early 2022 bear market, with elevated risk among top buyers and a sharp rise in supply held at a loss.

Meanwhile, institutional custody has grown significantly, with 216 entities now controlling over 30% of the BTC supply. This concentration, coupled with ETF outflows and declining spot volumes, underscores a cautious market environment. Yet, the Realized Cap-a metric that aggregates the value of all Bitcoin held at their last-moving price-has hit an all-time high of $872 billion. This indicates strong accumulation by long-term holders (LTHs), who have sold off ~300K BTC since July but now hold a cyclical low in supply, signaling reduced structural sell pressure.

On-Chain Behavior and Market Structure

Bitcoin's on-chain behavior in late 2025 has revealed a interplay between structural strength and short-term fragility. Key metrics like Net Unrealized Profit and Loss have swung from positive territory in early 2025 to deep negatives, indicating that current price levels represent a loss for much of the active inventory. This suggests a high degree of bearish sentiment among retail and intermediate holders, which often precedes market capitulation.

In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs) have shown resilience, maintaining their positions despite the broader drawdown. Their reduced supply of 14.33 million BTC, compared to 14.77 million BTC in July, has significantly weakened structural sell pressure. This trend is reinforced by rising inflows into institutional-grade custody solutions, signaling a shift toward a more mature and stable market structure.

Technical Analysis: Fibonacci and Elliott Wave Dynamics

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has tested critical Fibonacci retracement levels, most notably the 38.2% level at $98,100 and the 1.618% extension at $122,056. A successful hold above the 1.618% level could trigger a bullish continuation toward $140,000, while a breakdown below the 0.382 level risks a deeper correction toward $76,000. The golden ratio's influence on these levels reinforces their psychological and mathematical significance in market psychology.

Elliott Wave analysis further contextualizes Bitcoin's trajectory. The asset appears to be in Wave 4 of a larger impulse cycle, with projections indicating potential support at $69,000 before any bullish continuation. Analysts like Tara argue that a Wave 5 correction could drive prices as low as $94,000, creating ideal conditions for a bullish divergence once the RSI recovers. However, the current equilibrium remains fragile, with weak demand and leveraged short positions dominating derivatives markets according to market analysis.

LTH Behavior and Market Structure

Long-term holder activity has been a key driver of Bitcoin's price dynamics in late 2025. While LTHs were not the primary force behind the November selloff, their gradual distribution into ETFs and centralized exchanges has weakened support levels. This shift reflects adaptation to a changing market rather than capitulation. By November, LTH supply had declined from 14.77 million BTC in July to 14.33 million BTC, marking a cyclical low and reducing structural sell pressure.

In contrast, short-term holders (STHs) accounted for much of the panic selling during the $126K-to-$82K correction in October–November 2025 according to market reports. Derivatives markets amplified this decline, with leveraged short positions and rising Japanese 10-year yields contributing to a broader liquidity tightening according to research. Despite these challenges, some analysts view the drawdown as a potential inflection point, with $7.5 trillion in U.S. money market funds poised to flow into regulated BTC vehicles like ETFs.

Macro Factors and the Fed's Role

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate decision looms large over Bitcoin's near-term outlook. A 0.25% rate cut is expected, but the Fed's data-dependent approach and cautious messaging could prolong market pressure. ETF activity remains a double-edged sword: while U.S. spot ETFs experienced $3.7 billion in outflows in November, total AUM hit a record $137 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT dominating 55% of the market. This suggests that institutional demand remains a foundational undercurrent, even amid short-term volatility.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Signals

The convergence of on-chain, technical, and macroeconomic signals paints a nuanced picture. While Bitcoin's price remains subdued and liquidity fragile, the rising liveliness indicator, elevated Realized Cap, and LTH-driven accumulation suggest underlying strength. Fibonacci and Elliott Wave analyses highlight both risks and opportunities, with key support levels and wave structures offering potential inflection points.

For now, the market appears to be in a state of anticipation, waiting for high-volume reclaims and a sustained turn in ETF flows. If the $80K–$69K zone holds, a bullish continuation into 2026 could follow. However, a breakdown below $76K would likely signal a deeper correction, echoing the 2022 bear market. Investors must remain vigilant, as the path forward hinges on the interplay of structural accumulation, macroeconomic clarity, and the resilience of Bitcoin's long-term holder base.