Has Bitcoin Bottomed Out or Is the Downtrend Just Beginning?

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 is a battleground of conflicting signals. On-chain metrics suggest a potential bottoming process, while macroeconomic headwinds and technical indicators hint at prolonged volatility. This analysis dissects the tension between bullish on-chain data and bearish macro/technical factors to determine whether Bitcoin's current price action reflects a cyclical low or a continuation of the downtrend.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation or Distribution?

Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio in Q3 2025 reveals a nuanced picture. Short-term holder MVRV levels near 1.33–1.43 indicate that many positions are still in profit, with projected price targets of $160,000–$200,000 if the asset holds above its realized value base, according to a Bitcoin Magazine analysis. That analysis also aligns with historical patterns where MVRV ratios below 1.33 signal accumulation phases, while breaches above 1.64 often precede distribution. However, the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio remains ambiguous. While no precise 2025 data is available, evolving on-chain frameworks like the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score suggest Bitcoin is still in an accumulation-friendly range, per the same Bitcoin Magazine piece.

A critical on-chain divergence emerges from long-term holder behavior. In Q3, long-term holder supply decreased by 507K BTC as prices hit new highs, yet the MVRV Z-score near 2 implies the market remains far from past cycle peaks, according to Coin Metrics' Q3 wrap-up. That report suggests structural demand-driven by spot ETFs and IPOs-is stabilizing the network, even as short-term holders remain cautious.

Macroeconomic Headwinds: Trade Wars and Fed Uncertainty

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 is inextricably tied to macroeconomic turbulence. The US-China trade war triggered an 18% single-week sell-off in October 2025, exacerbated by structural sell-offs from long-term holders, according to a Markets.com analysis. While a temporary tariff truce eased immediate pressure, unresolved structural competition between the two economies continues to weigh on risk assets.

The Federal Reserve's policy ambiguity adds another layer of uncertainty. Despite two 50-basis-point rate cuts in September and October, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's "balanced approach" rhetoric has eroded market confidence. The probability of a December rate cut plummeted by 30% in two days, reflecting internal discord within the FOMC, as noted in the Markets.com analysis. This volatility is mirrored in Bitcoin's price, which remains sensitive to liquidity shifts as spot ETFs recorded outflows in late October.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed Bag

Bitcoin's technical profile as of November 2025 is cautiously bullish. The asset remains above its 200-day SMA ($103,200) and 50-day SMA ($114,200), with RSI at 54 and MACD turning upward, according to a LiteFinance price forecast. Key resistance levels at $117,000–$119,000 suggest a breakout could trigger a rally toward $121,500–$124,000, per the same LiteFinance forecast. However, support zones at $112,000 and $110,000 remain vulnerable, particularly if macroeconomic risks resurface.

Synthesis: A Cautious Bull Case

The on-chain data paints a cautiously optimistic picture. Accumulation by long-term holders, stable MVRV ratios, and structural demand from ETFs suggest Bitcoin is navigating a cyclical low. However, macroeconomic risks-trade wars, Fed uncertainty, and stagnant liquidity-remain potent headwinds. The technical setup, while supportive of a rebound, lacks the conviction of a full-blown bull market.

Investors must weigh these factors carefully. If Bitcoin holds above its 200-day SMA and the Fed adopts a clearer dovish stance, the $160,000–$200,000 range could materialize as a new baseline. Conversely, renewed trade tensions or a hawkish pivot could reignite the downtrend.