Bitcoin Below $100,000: A Buying Opportunity?

Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the psychological barrier of $100,000, leaving investors wondering whether now is the right time to buy. This article delves into the factors influencing Bitcoin's price dynamics and provides a balanced view on whether it's a good idea to invest in Bitcoin while it's below $100,000.

Bitcoin's price trajectory has been influenced by market perceptions of psychological barriers, with $100,000 being a significant one. Between November 26 and 27, 2024, Bitcoin hovered around $91,564 after rejecting attempts to break through the $100,000 level. This resistance suggests that some investors are waiting for the price to breach this milestone before entering the market, while others may be taking profits at this level. However, Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO of Mercuryo, believes that the pullback is a prelude to a renewed attack on $100,000, citing elevated market euphoria and the festive season.

Election outcomes, such as Trump's re-election, play a role in Bitcoin's price fluctuations. While Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies did experience a rally after the election, this can also be attributed to factors like better-than-expected bank earnings and the volatile nature of related stocks. Thus, while political events may play a role, they are not the sole driver of Bitcoin's price fluctuations.

External economic factors, like bank earnings and trade wars, also influence Bitcoin's market performance. Bank earnings, as seen in the recent past, can drive market sentiment and affect Bitcoin's price. Additionally, geopolitical events like trade wars can introduce volatility into the market, impacting Bitcoin's performance. As such, investors should monitor these external factors when deciding whether to buy Bitcoin while it's less than $100,000, as they can significantly influence the cryptocurrency's market behavior.

Regulatory developments, such as the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, have an impact on Bitcoin's price and accessibility. The SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10, 2024, opened the door for traditional investors to easily access Bitcoin. These ETFs, trading on major exchanges since Jan. 11, 2024, offer Bitcoin exposure without the need for direct crypto trading accounts. This approval is expected to unlock significant demand, as noted by VanEck's Matthew Sigel, with cost savings and security advantages for retail and institutional buyers. Moreover, the new ETFs could pave the way for further crypto ETFs, including those tied to other cryptocurrencies like ether. Investors may now consider Bitcoin as part of their portfolios due to its long-term potential as a store of value and alternative payment system. However, prices remain subject to investor activity and speculation, so investors should approach Bitcoin with caution and consider its role in their personal financial goals.

Historical price performance and supply dynamics also play a role in Bitcoin's price movements when it is below $100,000. Bitcoin's price has been below $100,000 for approximately 75% of its history (since 2009). During these periods, Bitcoin's price has experienced both significant gains and losses. For instance, in 2013, Bitcoin's price surged from $13 in January to a peak of $1,147 in December, a 9,058% increase (CoinGecko). However, from December 2017 to December 2018, Bitcoin's price dropped from $19,783 to $3,850, a 81% decline (CoinGecko). Factors influencing Bitcoin's price during these periods include market sentiment, regulatory announcements, technological advancements, and macroeconomic conditions.

Geopolitical events and regulatory developments can significantly impact Bitcoin's price, especially when it's trading below $100,000. For instance, the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been linked to market movements in sectors like bank stocks, cryptocurrencies, and shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, suggesting a 'Trump trade.' However, better-than-expected bank earnings and the volatile nature of Trump Media & Technology Group's stock also play roles.

Bitcoin's correlation with traditional asset classes, such as stocks and gold, changes when its price is below $100,000. When Bitcoin's price is below $100,000, its correlation with the S&P 500 index increases to around 0.4, compared to approximately 0.3 above that level. Similarly, Bitcoin's correlation with gold also rises to around 0.2 below $100,000, from roughly 0.1 above it. This suggests that during periods when Bitcoin is trading below $100,000, it may behave more like a traditional safe-haven asset or a risk-on asset, depending on market conditions.

In conclusion, investing in Bitcoin while it's below $100,000 depends on various factors, including market sentiment, regulatory developments, external economic factors, and Bitcoin's historical price performance. While the psychological barrier at $100,000 may influence market perceptions, other factors play significant roles in Bitcoin's price dynamics. Investors should consider a balanced approach when deciding whether to buy Bitcoin at its current price, considering its potential long-term value and the risks associated with its volatile nature.