Bitcoin's Bearish Signals and Potential Short-Term Rebound: A Technical Analysis of Momentum and Entry Points

The cryptocurrency market in November 2025 is navigating a complex interplay of bearish momentum and fleeting signs of resilience. Bitcoin (BTC), the bellwether of the digital asset class, has tested critical support levels while momentum indicators like RSI and MACD reinforce a downward bias. Yet, subtle technical divergences and volume patterns suggest a potential short-term rebound could materialize for traders willing to time their entries with precision.

Bearish Momentum: A Confluence of Technical Indicators

Bitcoin's price action in late November 2025 has been defined by a relentless descent, with the asset trading below all major moving averages and testing support at $93,006 and $92,809. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plummeted to 33.79, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD remains deeply negative at -4,003, with bearish momentum intensifying at -812. These metrics align with a broader bearish narrative, as the monthly MACD crossed into negative territory on November 24, 2025, a historical precursor to 60% price declines in prior cycles.

Volume trends further underscore the bearish sentiment. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume on Binance reached $3.17 billion, reflecting consolidated selling pressure amid the absence of major news catalysts. Long-term holders have also reduced their holdings from 14.7 million BTC in July to 14.4 million BTC, marking the third major profit-taking wave since late 2023-a pattern historically linked to 10%+ corrections.

RSI Divergence and the Ghost of a Rebound

Despite the bearish backdrop, technical analysts have identified a critical divergence on the 4-hour RSI chart. While Bitcoin's price formed a lower low in late November, the RSI failed to do the same, creating a bullish divergence that hints at waning selling pressure. This divergence, though not a guaranteed reversal signal, suggests that short-term buyers may regain control if the price breaks above key resistance levels such as $94,200 and $95,000.

The TBO (Trend Bar Oscillator) and On-Balance Volume (OBV) also provide mixed signals. While OBV confirms the bearish trend by rising alongside price declines, the TBO Fast line offers a potential target for a countertrend bounce. However, traders must remain cautious: any rally to the TBO Fast line could act as a bull trap, especially if Bitcoin fails to establish a higher low on the daily chart.

Timing Entry Points: A Delicate Balance

For traders seeking to capitalize on a potential rebound, the $86,000–$87,500 support range becomes a critical focal point. A successful test of this level could trigger a short-term reversal, particularly if Ethereum (ETH) continues its relative outperformance. Ethereum's daily RSI remains above Bitcoin's, suggesting that altcoin buyers may step in to absorb BTC's weakness. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has risen 0.41% despite BTC's new low, indicating dip-buying activity.

However, the path to a sustainable rebound is fraught with risks. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $86,000, the market could enter a "waterfall" decline toward $40,000, as historical bearish MACD crossovers suggest. Traders should monitor the 365-day SMA ($102,055) and EMA ($99,924) as dynamic resistance levels, with a break above these thresholds potentially signaling a broader trend reversal.

Conclusion: Navigating the Bearish Quagmire

Bitcoin's technical landscape in November 2025 is a textbook example of a bearish market with embedded short-term volatility. While momentum indicators and volume trends paint a grim picture, RSI divergences and support-level tests offer glimmers of hope for tactical traders. The key lies in balancing caution with opportunism: using oversold conditions as a filter for potential entries while remaining vigilant for signs of a deeper capitulation.

As the market awaits a catalyst to break the current consolidation, one thing is clear-technical analysis remains an indispensable tool for dissecting Bitcoin's next move in this volatile chapter.