Bitcoin's Bearish Monthly MACD Crossover: A Harbinger of 60%+ Downtrends?

Bitcoin's recent bearish monthly MACD crossover on November 24, 2025, has reignited debates about the cryptocurrency's trajectory. This technical signal, historically associated with major market corrections, now raises critical questions: Is this a harbinger of a 60%+ price drop? How do historical patterns and current market dynamics align? Let's dissect the data.

The MACD Bearish Crossover: A Historical Signal

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a momentum indicator that tracks the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. A bearish crossover occurs when the MACD line (12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA) crosses below the signal line (9-period EMA), signaling weakening bullish momentum.

Historically, Bitcoin's monthly MACD bearish crossovers have coincided with significant downturns. For instance:
- 2018: The MACD turned bearish in December 2017, marking the end of the 2017 bull run. Bitcoin plummeted from $19,800 to $3,200-a 73% drop-by December 2018.
- 2022: A bearish crossover in November 2021 preceded a 70% collapse from $69,000 to $15,000–$19,000 by June 2022.
- 2025: The recent crossover aligns with a 33% decline from October's all-time high of $126,198 to $84,000, with further bearish momentum expected.

These patterns suggest an average drawdown of 60–70% following such crossovers, raising concerns that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $40,000 in this cycle.

Technical Indicators in Context

The bearish crossover is not an isolated event. It coincides with other bearish signals:
1. Death Cross: In October 2025, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day moving average, a classic bearish reversal pattern.
2. RSI Oversold Conditions: The RSI has entered deeply oversold territory, indicating exhausted selling pressure. However, this often precedes short-term rallies rather than trend reversals.
3. Volume Divergence: Declining volume during the recent selloff suggests waning conviction among sellers, a potential precursor to a counter-trend bounce.

Historical Parallels and Divergences

While the 2025 crossover mirrors 2018 and 2022 in timing and magnitude, key differences exist:
- Institutional Adoption: The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 introduced new institutional liquidity, which could mitigate downside risks.
- Halving Cycle: The 2026 halving looms, historically preceding bull markets. However, the current bearish crossover occurs before the halving, complicating its predictive power.
- Macroeconomic Factors: Unlike 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin now faces a more mature regulatory environment and diversified investor base, potentially altering its response to technical signals.

The Path Forward: Bearish Momentum vs. Structural Resilience

Analysts remain divided. On one hand, the confluence of a bearish MACD, death cross, and oversold RSI suggests a high probability of further declines. On the other, structural factors-such as ETF-driven demand and the upcoming halving-could create a floor for Bitcoin's price.

If history repeats, Bitcoin may test $40,000 before finding support. However, this time might be different. The 2020–2021 bull market, for example, saw Bitcoin consolidate after a bearish crossover before surging to new highs. A similar "2020 rerun" scenario cannot be ruled out, especially if macroeconomic conditions improve or institutional buying accelerates.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's bearish monthly MACD crossover is a red flag, historically correlated with 60–70% corrections. Yet, the interplay of technical indicators and structural factors introduces uncertainty. Investors should remain cautious but not dismissive of potential counter-trend rallies. As always, diversification and risk management are paramount in navigating this volatile asset class.