Bitcoin Bearish, Ethereum Bullish as $4.3B Options Expiry Near

Bitcoin and Ethereum traders are bracing for heightened volatility as over $4.3 billion in crypto options expire on Deribit on Friday. The event, which includes $3.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and $806.75 million in Ethereum (ETH) contracts, could trigger short-term price swings before markets stabilize. Bitcoin’s Put-to-Call Ratio (PCR) of 1.23 indicates bearish positioning, while Ethereum’s PCR of 0.99 suggests a slight bullish bias. The maximum pain levels—prices where most options expire worthless—stand at $114,000 for Bitcoin and $4,500 for Ethereum, both near current trading levels.

Bitcoin’s options data reveals a total open interest of 30,208 contracts, with the price currently trading at $116,792. The max pain theory, which posits that prices gravitate toward levels causing maximum losses for expiring contracts, suggests downward pressure toward $114,000. Ethereum, trading at $4,527, faces a similar dynamic, with its max pain level at $4,500. Analysts note that the balanced PCR ratios across both assets reflect hedging activity and uncertainty in post-Federal Reserve rate cut markets.

The Fed’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut has influenced options markets, with implied volatility rising while trading volumes dipped, signaling caution. Glassnode data highlights that 95% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit following the FOMC rally, with key support at $115,200. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s supply is also largely in profit, though its price remains slightly above the $4,500 threshold. The market’s mixed sentiment underscores a lack of consensus on near-term price direction.

This week’s expiry is notable for its scale, with both BTC and ETH volumes exceeding last week’s $4.3 billion event. However, Ethereum’s PCR below 1 marks a shift from last week’s balanced bets, indicating stronger demand for call options. Traders are closely monitoring the balance between bullish and bearish positions, as the outcome could influence whether prices consolidate or break out. The expiry’s timing—8:00 UTC on Deribit—coincides with European trading hours, a period historically prone to volatility.

Looking ahead, the September 26 expiry looms as the largest Bitcoin options event in history, with $18 billion in notional value at stake. At current prices, over $2.4 billion in Bitcoin contracts are in the money, with a max pain level at $110,000. Analysts warn that next week’s expiry could amplify short-term price swings, but markets typically stabilize post-expiration. The current $4.3 billion event serves as a precursor, highlighting how options activity can temporarily distort crypto price action.

Markets are expected to experience turbulence during the expiry, particularly in early European trading hours, but stabilization is likely as contracts settle. The event underscores the growing influence of options markets on crypto volatility, with institutional participation in derivatives reaching record levels. As traders prepare for the weekend, the outcome of Friday’s expiry may provide clues about broader market sentiment ahead of the larger September 26 event.

Source: [1] BTC, ETH Options Expiry Worth $4.3B Could Spark Volatility (https://www.cryptotimes.io/2025/09/19/btc-eth-options-expiry-worth-4-3b-could-spark-volatility/)

[2] Bitcoin and Ethereum Brace for $4.3B Options Expiry as Volatility Looms (https://cryptodataspace.com/bitcoin-and-ethereum-brace-for-4-3b-options-expiry-as-volatility-looms/)

[3] $4.3 Billion Crypto Options Expiry Triggers Potential Volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum (https://coincentral.com/4-3-billion-crypto-options-expiry-triggers-potential-volatility-for-bitcoin-and-ethereum/)

[4] $4.3 Billion Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expire Today - BeInCrypto (https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-ethereum-options-expire-today-volatility/)

[5] Bitcoin Price, Crypto Market Brace for Volatility Ahead of Over $4.3B Options Expiry (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/12/bitcoin-price-crypto-market-brace-for-volatility-ahead-of-over-4-3-billion-options-expiry/)