Bitcoin's Bearish On-Chain Signals and the Role of Macro Liquidity in Recovery

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 is navigating a complex interplay between bearish on-chain signals and macroeconomic liquidity dynamics. While metrics like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and Network Value to Transactions (NVT) suggest lingering fragility, broader liquidity trends and institutional behavior hint at a potential recovery phase. This analysis dissects the current landscape, blending on-chain analytics with macroeconomic context to assess Bitcoin's trajectory.

On-Chain Bearish Signals: A Cautionary Tale

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics remain a mixed bag. The Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV ratio, a critical indicator of short-term selling pressure, has rebounded to 0.9514 as of November 2025, signaling a shift from capitulation to cautious optimism. However, this remains below the 1.0 threshold where holders break even, suggesting that short-term investors are still vulnerable to price dips. Meanwhile, the broader MVRV ratio for all Bitcoin holders stands at 2.0, far below the overvaluation level of 4.0 seen in prior bull cycles. This indicates that most investors remain profitable but far from euphoric, a sign of a mid-cycle expansion rather than a speculative frenzy.

Chain activity also tells a story of retrenchment. Daily active addresses in Q4 2025 averaged 722,857, a 2% monthly decline and a 24% annual increase. This suggests a slowdown in retail participation, with larger transactions dominating the network-a trend often linked to institutional activity. Exchange outflows have further tightened liquidity, with only 2.4 million BTC held on centralized exchanges, a level that reduces immediate selling pressure but amplifies volatility risks.

Macro Liquidity: The Unseen Hand

Bitcoin's price dynamics are inextricably tied to global liquidity conditions. The Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty in late 2025-marked by delayed rate-cut expectations and a government shutdown-has compounded market fragility. However, Bitcoin's historical role as a liquidity barometer remains intact. Data from Lyn Alden's research underscores that Bitcoin often leads liquidity changes, anticipating tightening measures during bull peaks and lagging during bear bottoms.

The global M2 money supply, a key macroeconomic indicator, is now at a cycle high, with Bitcoin's price showing a 0.94 correlation to M2 growth in 2024. This relationship suggests that as liquidity expands, Bitcoin could see renewed inflows. Additionally, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened due to geopolitical tensions and trade war dynamics, creating a "strong dollar" environment that suppresses risk assets. Yet Bitcoin's inverse correlation with DXY (-0.72 in 2024) positions it as a hedge against dollar overvaluation.

Bridging On-Chain and Macro: A Path to Recovery?

The interplay between on-chain metrics and macro liquidity offers clues about Bitcoin's potential recovery. The MVRV Z-Score, currently at 3.0, indicates that Bitcoin is far from overheated levels (typically above 6–7), leaving room for growth. Meanwhile, the NVT Signal at 1.51 reflects healthy network utilization, supported by 735K active addresses. These metrics suggest the market is not in a euphoric top but rather in a consolidation phase.

Institutional adoption is another critical factor. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) and ETF inflows have driven steady accumulation by long-term holders, even amid weak price action. This "quiet accumulation" contrasts with retail retreat, as evidenced by declining active addresses. VanEck's year-end price target of $180K hinges on sustained institutional demand and liquidity expansion.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs): A Double-Edged Sword

While CBDCs are gaining traction-98% of global GDP is now covered by CBDC exploration-their impact on Bitcoin remains ambiguous according to recent research. On one hand, CBDCs could reduce Bitcoin's appeal as a fiat hedge. On the other, they may accelerate institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a counterbalance to centralized digital currencies. The lack of explicit data linking CBDCs to Bitcoin chain activity in 2025 underscores the need for further analysis.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Balance

Bitcoin's path forward hinges on resolving the tension between bearish on-chain signals and macro liquidity tailwinds. While metrics like MVRV and NVT suggest caution, the broader macroeconomic environment-driven by M2 growth, Fed policy, and institutional flows-points to a potential recovery. Investors must monitor key thresholds: a sustained MVRV rebound above 1.0, a Fed rate-cut decision in December, and the stabilization of global liquidity. For now, Bitcoin remains a barometer of both market sentiment and monetary policy, straddling the line between capitulation and conviction.