Bitcoin Bear Market Not 'Over Already' as Price Rejects at $68K Trend Line

Bitcoin remains in the mid-to-late stages of a bear market, with price action showing little sign of reversing. The cryptocurrency has moved sideways within the $60,000–$70,000 range, a pattern consistent with historical bear market phases. Nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is underwater, with about 9.2 million coins in losses, reinforcing the depth of the downturn. Analysts warn that without a decisive move above $70,000, the bearish trend could continue.

Technical indicators highlight the fragility of current price structure. Bitcoin has closed below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023, a development analysts associate with increased bearish momentum. Elevated sell-side volume and weak buy-side participation suggest a shift in support to resistance, increasing the risk of further declines. A retest of this level could confirm its bearish role and deepen the downturn.

On-chain metrics reflect a deep bear market in progress. The Accumulation Trend Score remains below 0.5, indicating that large investors have yet to show aggressive accumulation. Institutional flows and spot market reabsorption are needed to support a sustainable bullish turn, according to analysis. Meanwhile, over $4 billion in outflows have been recorded from Bitcoin investment products over five weeks, underscoring weak investor sentiment.

Why Is the Bear Market Not Over Yet?

Bitcoin’s sideways price action in the $60,000–$70,000 range is consistent with mid-to-late bear market phases. Historical patterns show that this level of market depth—nearly half the supply in loss—is a common feature in late bear markets. Without clear accumulation or a reversal in institutional flows, analysts remain cautious about a sustainable recovery.

The bearish momentum is also reinforced by a lack of overbought expansion in the previous bull phase. This deviation from past cycles means the current bear market may not follow a symmetric pattern, making it harder to predict a bottom. Analysts note that past bear markets saw sharper declines after a break below the 200-week EMA, a threshold now at risk of being retested as resistance.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Traders are closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can close above the 200-week EMA. A successful breakout would flip the level into support and potentially trigger a rally toward $80,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have added to bullish momentum, with half a billion dollars injected into these products in a single day.

However, the market remains vulnerable. A breakdown below the EMA could confirm bearish continuation and lead to a sharp selloff. Analysts also note that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has reached levels similar to past bear markets, reinforcing the risk of prolonged weakness.

Some traders argue that Bitcoin’s first weekly green candle in five weeks aligns with a 23-month historical cycle, a pattern that has previously preceded bottoming. This signal, combined with growing exchange outflows and a shifting macroeconomic environment, could hint at an eventual recovery. But no single indicator is sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

How Do Market Conditions Affect the Outlook?

Macro factors remain mixed. Central banks are nearing the end of aggressive interest rate hikes, which could improve conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin ETF inflows have not yet translated into significant accumulation, and on-chain metrics remain bearish.

Market psychology also plays a role. Prolonged bearish trends often lead to extreme pessimism, which can precede a rebound. The recent weekly green candle suggests possible selling exhaustion, but confirmation is needed before a bullish turn can be considered.

With Bitcoin trading near the 200-week EMA and nearly half of its supply in loss, the market remains in a delicate position. A clear shift in accumulation, institutional flows, and spot market reabsorption will be needed to confirm a sustainable recovery. Until then, the bear market remains intact.