Bitcoin Bear Market Still in Play as $65K 'Do-or-Die' Price Point Looms

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a critical price point as the potential for a bear market looms in 2026. Analysts have flagged $65,000 as a key battleground, with further support at $45,000. This follows a power law analysis that suggests the asset may now be due for a retest of a lower support line.

The power law model, which attempts to assign a 'fair value' to Bitcoin, has historically aligned with long-term bottoms. According to Fidelity Investments director Jurrien Timmer, Bitcoin is currently following the internet S-curve more closely than the power law. He noted that, while the $65,000 level represents a critical threshold, a move below that to $45,000 could become a decisive moment for the asset.

David Eng, another executive, argued that bear markets are still a feature of Bitcoin, even as it matures. He dismissed the idea that Bitcoin has 'graduated' into a no-bear-market regime, emphasizing that it remains a scarce asset within the financial system according to analysis.

Why the Move Happened

Bitcoin has been following a four-year price cycle that many have tied to its halving events. However, recent volatility has called this model into question. In 2025, BTC/USD ended the year in the red, raising doubts about the predictability of the cycle. Some traders have suggested abandoning the four-year cycle theory altogether.

Eng, however, remains bullish, arguing that Bitcoin is currently compressed below its long-term growth law. He expects an upward resolution as the asset 'coils' and builds energy before a potential rebound.

What Analysts Are Watching Next

The debate over Bitcoin's future has intensified as traders monitor key price levels. Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, warned of bearish forces on high timeframes. He noted that the recent failure to break above $95,000 signaled a rejection of the current breakout attempt.

Timmer also cautioned that if Bitcoin consolidates around $65,000 for an extended period, that level could become a 'do-or-die' moment for the asset. A sustained move below that threshold could signal further downward pressure.

ETF Outflows and Market Reactions

In early January 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $486 million on Wednesday, reversing earlier inflows at the start of the year. This marked the first outflow for BTC ETFs since the beginning of the year, raising questions about short-term investor confidence.

Meanwhile, spot Ether (ETH) ETFs also recorded their first outflow day, with a net withdrawal of $98.5 million on Wednesday according to data. These outflows contrast with more stable inflows in smaller crypto ETFs, such as those tracking Solana (SOL), which continued to attract modest but consistent capital.

Insider Transactions and Market Sentiment

Insider activity has also drawn attention in the broader market. Rafael Flores, a director at Ameren (AEE), sold $65,930 worth of shares in early January. Such transactions are typically reported within two business days via SEC filings and are often viewed as a potential indicator of internal sentiment.

While insider sales do not always signal a bearish view, they are frequently analyzed for signs of capital rotation or strategic portfolio adjustments. In this case, Flores' sale coincided with a modest 1.18% rise in Ameren's stock price.

Long-Term Investment Implications

For long-term investors, the debate over Bitcoin's price cycles has taken on greater importance. VanEck's Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) model projects a base-case return of 15% annualized over 25 years, assuming Bitcoin settles as a global reserve and settlement asset. This would take the asset to $2.9 million per coin by 2050 according to projections.

Such projections are based on structural shifts, including Bitcoin's potential to capture 5–10% of global trade and 2.5% of central bank balance sheets. For now, the $88,000 price level represents the baseline in this model.

Investors are advised to monitor Bitcoin's correlation to global liquidity, particularly M2 money supply and the inverse relationship to the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). These factors remain key inputs in institutional models used for portfolio construction.