Bitcoin Bear Market Lingers as Analysts Debate Duration: 90 Days or 10 Months?
Aime Summary
Bitcoin entered a bear market in early 2025, with its price dropping 20% from its all-time high measured in gold, according to economist and crypto critic Peter Schiff[1]. This decline, Schiff argues, is more significant than a similar drop in dollar terms due to Bitcoin’s role as a “digital gold” benchmark. The bear market has been driven by a combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory pressures, and geopolitical tensions, including U.S. President Trump’s trade war measures[2].
Technical indicators further confirm the bearish trend. BitcoinBTC-- fell below its 200-day simple moving average in late February 2025, a key threshold for market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of buying and selling pressure, dropped to 20, signaling extreme pessimism[2]. Trading volume on global exchanges also contracted, shrinking from $2.14 trillion to $1.73 trillion as investors retreated from risk assets[2]. On-chain data revealed declining network activity, with active Bitcoin addresses dropping from 1.4 million to 1.1 million between January and February 2025[2].
Market analysts have offered diverging timelines for the bear market’s duration. Timothy Peterson, a market strategist, argues that the current downturn is milder than past bear markets and could last only 90 days[3]. He notes that Bitcoin’s adoption trends and institutional interest provide a buffer against deeper declines. Peterson predicts a potential 20-40% rally after April 15, 2025, which could attract hesitant investors and propel prices higher[3]. Conversely, historical patterns suggest bear markets typically last 10 months on average, though outliers like the 2021–2022 downturn lasted 21 months[2].
Geopolitical and regulatory factors have amplified market volatility. Trump’s tariffs on trading partners triggered retaliatory measures, fueling fears of prolonged trade wars. These uncertainties have eroded investor confidence, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeting to 20 (a level of “fear”) in February 2025[2]. Regulatory delays, such as the SEC’s prolonged approval of EthereumETH-- options ETFs, have also contributed to downward pressure[2]. Meanwhile, the Bybit exchange hack in February 2025—resulting in $1.5 billion in losses—further spooked investors[2].
Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about a near-term recovery. The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, which tracks short-term Bitcoin holdings, fell from 5.9% in November 2024 to 2.3% by March 2025, indicating reduced speculative trading[3]. CryptoQuant data also suggests that most retail investors are already in the market, limiting the potential for fresh capital inflows[3]. However, long-term holders have increased their positions, suggesting a possible accumulation phase ahead of the next bull cycle[2].
The bear market has disproportionately impacted altcoins, with the total altcoin market cap falling 43% since the start of 2025. MemeMEME-- coins like DogecoinDOGE-- and Shiba InuSHIB-- have lost over 70% of their value, reflecting waning risk appetite[2]. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also struggled, losing over 51% in three months after peaking above $4,100 in December 2024[4]. Analysts suggest ETH must reclaim the $2,200 range to regain upward momentum[4].
While the near-term outlook remains uncertain, historical cycles and adoption trends suggest the bear market could reverse by mid-2025. If trade negotiations ease and macroeconomic conditions stabilize, Bitcoin may find a floor near $80,000, as predicted by Peterson[3]. However, prolonged regulatory scrutiny or geopolitical tensions could extend the downturn. For now, investors are advised to prioritize risk management, diversify portfolios, and monitor key indicators like open interest and on-chain activity[2].
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