Bitcoin's Bear Market: Flow Metrics and the Path to $70K

The market has confirmed a bear regime that began in early November 2025. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, which aggregates network activity, investor profitability, and market liquidity, flipped bearish and has not recovered since. The final technical trigger was Bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average on November 12, 2025, a key level that typically confirms a shift to a longer-term downtrend.

This bear market is off to a weaker start than the 2022 cycle. Since breaking below that 365-day moving average, Bitcoin has declined 23% in 83 days, compared to just a 6% drop over the same period in early 2022. The momentum for a downturn is deteriorating faster this cycle, signaling more immediate pressure.

The setup points to broader structural weakness. On-chain data shows stablecoin liquidity contracting for the first time since 2023, while U.S. spot demand remains subdued. This lack of fresh capital entering the market, combined with ETF flows turning from a tailwind to a headwind, creates persistent selling pressure that has yet to find a bottom.

Institutional Flow Reversal: The ETF Headwind

The most critical shift is a reversal in institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows have flipped from a tailwind to a headwind, removing a key support for price. At the same point last year, ETFs were net buyers of roughly 46,000 BTC. In 2026, they have instead become net sellers, offloading around 10,600 BTC. That creates a 56,000 BTC demand gap compared to 2025, contributing directly to persistent selling pressure.

This reversal is stark. Matt Hougan of Bitwise noted that $75 billion in ETF and treasury demand was the only thing preventing a 60% drop from Bitcoin's October peak. With that support now absent, the market is exposed. His analysis frames the current phase as a "crypto winter" that began in January 2025, with the ETF demand acting as a crucial buffer against a deeper crash.

Yet a contradiction persists. Despite bearish talk, 70% of institutions still view Bitcoin as undervalued. This creates a definitional tension: a bear market regime is acknowledged, but the core institutional thesis of long-term value remains intact. The action-net selling through ETFs-does not yet match the sentiment, leaving the market in a state of defensive positioning with no clear capitulation.

Catalysts and Scenarios: The Path to $70K and Beyond

The immediate downside target is the $70,000–$60,000 range, with $70K seen as a key psychological and technical support level. This zone aligns with the 2021 market top and is a focal point for potential capitulation. Analysts like Aurelie Barthere of Nansen expect the bearish move to test this support, viewing it as a critical level before any meaningful reversal can occur.

The bear market is expected to be shorter and less volatile than past cycles. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno estimates a potential bottom of $56,000 to $60,000 within the next year, a drawdown of roughly 55% from the October peak. This would be smaller than prior 70%–80% bear markets, as the downturn has not been driven by major industry failures and demand has become more periodic, with institutional flows providing a floor.

Moreno expects the bear market to end in Q3 2026, roughly 13 months after its November 2025 confirmation. This timeline suggests the current phase is a defined winter, not an open-ended collapse. The path to $70K and beyond hinges on restoring liquidity and demand, with the market's ability to stabilize near the realized price zone being the key indicator of a bottom.