Bitcoin Bear Market: CryptoQuant Signals Possible 2026 Low

Bitcoin has entered a bear market, according to data from CryptoQuant, a leading crypto analytics firm. The decline started around November 2025, when key technical and on-chain indicators turned bearish. Analysts at the firm say the bearish trend is now confirmed by Bitcoin falling below its one-year moving average.

CryptoQuant's research head Julio Moreno estimates that Bitcoin may trade lower before reaching a potential bottom in 2026. Based on on-chain activity and realized price levels, the firm predicts a range between $56,000 and $60,000 as a potential support zone.

A drawdown to this level would mark a roughly 55% decline from Bitcoin's peak. While significant, this is less severe than past bear markets, which have seen drops of up to 80%. According to Moreno, institutional participation and ETF flows are expected to act as a stabilizing force.

The bearish shift is linked to multiple factors, including investor behavior, reduced buying activity, and prolonged selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant, the bull score index showed widespread bearish signals from mid-2025.

Bitcoin started 2025 at around $93,000 and reached an intrayear high of $126,000 in October. However, it ended 2025 below its opening level, challenging expectations of a strong post-halving bull run.

The broader crypto market has also shown signs of weakness. Total market capitalization fluctuated by roughly $50 billion within five hours in late December 2025, reflecting fragile liquidity.

Bitcoin's dominance has increased to near 58%, signaling a defensive move by investors to liquidity and perceived safety. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows at the start of 2026, although corporate demand remained strong.

CryptoQuant and K33 Research have divergent views. While CryptoQuant anticipates a potential bottom in 2026, K33 expects a stronger rebound. The firm cites potential Fed rate cuts, regulatory clarity, and the Trump administration's pro-crypto policies as catalysts for a 2026 recovery.

Grayscale also predicts that U.S. bipartisan regulations could accelerate institutional adoption in 2026. These rules, aligning crypto with traditional finance, could expand the role of digital assets in investment portfolios.

Bitcoin's realized price and historical drawdowns are key metrics investors are tracking. Moreno said the current bear market looks structurally different from previous ones, with fewer high-profile failures and more institutional buyers maintaining steady demand.

MicroStrategy, which holds 672,497 Bitcoin, continues to defend its Bitcoin-first model despite market volatility. The company has also set up a $1.44 billion cash reserve to cover dividend and interest payments for at least 12 months.

Investors are advised to monitor Bitcoin's price relative to its realized price, on-chain flows, and ETF activity. A sustained rebound would need to break above $92,000 to challenge recent resistance levels.

The broader market is waiting for clarity on whether the bear market will continue or reverse. While predictions vary, most analysts agree that regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and institutional demand will play crucial roles in determining Bitcoin's next move.