Has Bitcoin's Bear Market Bottomed, and What Does It Mean for Long-Term Investors?

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 paints a complex picture for investors. While technical indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound, the broader bearish trend remains intact. Meanwhile, structural supply dynamics-shaped by the 2024 halving and institutional adoption-hint at long-term resilience. For long-term investors, the question is not merely whether the bear market has bottomed, but whether the fundamentals justify holding through the volatility.

Technical Analysis: A Bearish Bias with Oversold Conditions

Bitcoin's price has been confined within a descending channel since mid-2025, with the lower boundary currently testing support near $85,000 and $80,000 according to analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to 29.23, entering oversold territory-a level historically associated with short-term rebounds as data shows. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish, with the histogram below zero and the signal line above the MACD line, reinforcing the downtrend.

Volume patterns further complicate the outlook. Downward moves have seen increased volume, signaling strong selling pressure and potentially indicating capitulation among short-term holders. A failure to break above $90,000 could trigger a retest of the $85,000 support level or even a drop to $80,000 according to technical analysis. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above $90,000 might signal a consolidation phase, but such a move would require a significant shift in sentiment.

The Fear & Greed Index, which measures market psychology, remains in the "extreme fear" zone, a condition often seen at bear market troughs. Yet, historical bear market bottoms typically require more than just oversold conditions-they demand a confluence of technical confirmations, such as bullish MACD crossovers or volume surges on upward breaks. These signals are absent in November 2025, suggesting the current oversold reading may reflect a temporary bounce rather than a definitive bottom.

Fundamental Dynamics: Scarcity vs. Macro Headwinds

Bitcoin's structural supply dynamics remain a cornerstone of its long-term value proposition. The 2024 halving reduced mining rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, cutting the daily supply of new bitcoins in half. This event, combined with the network's growing hash rate (now 898.86 exahashes per second), has reinforced Bitcoin's scarcity profile. By 2028, the next halving will further reduce the daily supply to 225 BTC, pushing the stock-to-flow ratio to approximately 116-double its current level.

However, the 2024 halving's impact on price has been muted compared to prior cycles. While historical halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) triggered multi-year bull runs, Bitcoin's price in 2025 has traded in a narrow range between $80,000 and $90,000. This divergence reflects macroeconomic headwinds, including Federal Reserve policy shifts and regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. as reported. Institutional adoption, though growing, has not yet offset these pressures. Over 10% of Bitcoin's supply is now held by corporations and ETFs, but ETF outflows-exemplified by BlackRock's $2.47 billion loss in November 2025-continue to weigh on demand.

Implications for Long-Term Investors

For long-term investors, Bitcoin's structural scarcity remains a compelling argument. The 2028 halving will further reduce supply growth, potentially amplifying demand from institutional buyers and corporate treasuries. However, timing the market remains a challenge. The current bearish technical setup suggests that any short-term rebound is likely to be shallow, with the $90,000 resistance level acting as a critical psychological barrier.

Historical bear market bottoms often require prolonged capitulation and a shift in macroeconomic conditions. For example, the 2018-2019 bottom occurred after years of regulatory crackdowns and a global liquidity crisis, while the 2020 bottom coincided with unprecedented monetary stimulus. In 2025, the absence of such catalysts-combined with ongoing ETF outflows-makes it difficult to argue for a near-term bottom.

That said, the long-term case for Bitcoin remains intact. Its deflationary supply model, coupled with growing institutional adoption, positions it as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation. Investors with a multi-year horizon may find value in dollar-cost averaging into dips, particularly if the $80,000 support level holds. However, those seeking to time the market should exercise caution; the current technical and macroeconomic environment favors patience over speculation.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's bear market in November 2025 shows no definitive signs of bottoming. While oversold conditions and a growing stock-to-flow ratio offer long-term optimism, the technical and macroeconomic headwinds remain formidable. For long-term investors, the focus should shift from timing the market to understanding the structural forces that will shape Bitcoin's trajectory over the next decade. As the 2028 halving approaches, the interplay between scarcity and institutional demand will likely determine whether Bitcoin's next bull run rivals its historical cycles-or evolves into something entirely new.