Bitcoin's BCMI Surpasses 0.50, Miners Hold Coins, Market Sentiment Measured

Bitcoin's Combined Market Index (BCMI) has surpassed the neutral mark of 0.50, currently standing at 0.55. Historically, the range of 0.60–0.75 has been associated with price shakeouts of 20–35%, typically occurring before euphoric peaks. Despite this shift in momentum, the overall market sentiment remains measured. Indicators such as Fear & Greed hovering in the low-70s, MVRV near 2.0, and NUPL around 0.4 suggest that valuations are not yet overheated. The increasing trend of ETF flows and self-custody continues to mitigate on-chain spikes, creating a cautious yet warming macro environment as momentum builds.

Miners appear to be holding back from selling their coins, as indicated by the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) remaining deeply negative at -0.66. This behavior suggests a preference for accumulation or at least non-distribution, which is typically aligned with bullish mid-cycle setups. Although the MPI surged by 66.22% over the last 24 hours, hinting at growing pressure, it remains below zero, confirming that miners have not exerted significant sell pressure. As long as this restraint persists, Bitcoin’s uptrend could continue to receive indirect support from mining entities.

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), when adjusted for supply, rose by 10.34%, indicating that long-term holders have begun moving their coins. This subtle shift in behavior often reflects changing market psychology, possibly due to profit opportunities or macro signals. While this move signals a change in sentiment, it has not reached levels associated with widespread profit-taking. Market psychology appears to be shifting quietly, but not aggressively.

Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) rose by 5.36% in 24 hours, reaching $95.84 million. This growth reflects improved profitability, though it remains far below historical extremes seen during peak rallies. The data reinforces the BCMI’s mid-cycle reading, suggesting that Bitcoin’s rally still has room to grow. However, traders should closely monitor how quickly profits compound, as euphoria could sneak in unnoticed.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was priced at $108,520 and continued trading above its ascending trendline. Parabolic SAR dots stayed below price candles, validating a bullish bias. RSI indicators hovered around 55, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold territory. This neutral stance, combined with the current price structure, highlighted that BTC remained technically stable. However, a close below $106,000 could threaten trend integrity. While momentum is intact, traders should watch for any breakdown that may disrupt this calm mid-cycle behavior.

Overall, the broader backdrop still favors upward movement. Bitcoin’s BCMI at 0.55 signals a warming mid-cycle. Miners are holding, long-term holders are nudging coins without rushing out, and profits are rising gradually, not greedily. The setup remains intact, but if the BCMI creeps into the 0.60–0.75 zone, the risk of a shakeout looms.