Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally Expected July 14, Analysts Predict 16% Gain

Economist Timothy Peterson has identified a notable historical pattern in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, highlighting a period he refers to as the “Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally.” According to Peterson, this rally is set to commence on July 14 and is expected to mark a significant recovery phase for Bitcoin. His analysis, based on historical data, indicates that in years where Bitcoin underperforms, it typically experiences a strong rally starting around Bastille Day. This rally usually begins on July 14th and extends until July 30th, making this two-week period crucial for Bitcoin to recoup its annual losses.

Peterson's observations suggest that while this rally could be a positive sign for Bitcoin, investors should be cautious. He warns that the ten-week period following this two-week recovery phase is historically one of the weakest performing periods for Bitcoin. This duality in the market's behavior underscores the volatility and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market.

Peterson also compares Bitcoin's behavior to that of a “compressed spring,” noting that historically, Bitcoin has seen an average rise of at least 16% in positive months. However, this year, the figure has only been 9% so far. This discrepancy suggests that strong moves above 16% are possible in the coming positive months, according to the analyst. This observation highlights the potential for significant price movements in the near future, adding to the anticipation surrounding the upcoming rally.

Bitcoin analysts are closely monitoring the cryptocurrency market, with particular attention to the upcoming date of July 14. This date marks the beginning of what Peterson refers to as the “Bitcoin Bastille Day Rally.” This period is anticipated to signal a significant rally for Bitcoin, based on historical data. The analyst's prediction is rooted in past market trends, suggesting that July 14 could be a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency's price movement.

On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) surged above a key barrier and closed the week around the $109,200 mark. This movement successfully confirmed its diagonal daily trendline as support, indicating a potential upward trajectory. The recent price action has placed Bitcoin in a 'retesting phase,' where it is reaffirming its support levels before potentially moving higher.

Strategy, a Nasdaq-listed firm led by Michael Saylor, has paused its Bitcoin purchases, marking the first time since early April that it has not made any acquisitions. Despite this pause, Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with over 597,325 BTC valued at over $65 billion. The company's average purchase price for these coins is approximately $70,982, resulting in an unrealized profit of roughly $22.6 billion. Strategy's Bitcoin holdings now represent about 2.8% of the total 21 million Bitcoin supply.

The pause in Bitcoin purchases comes after a period of aggressive acquisitions. The Virginia-based company had bought 4,980 BTC for $531.9 million between June 23 and June 29. However, the pace has slowed in recent weeks as the firm shifted its focus from selling common stock to offering perpetual preferred stock to raise capital. In late June, Strategy raised $6.8 billion through its at-the-market equity programs, which included sales of Class A common stock and various types of preferred shares.

Strategy’s long-term plan, known as the “42/42” program, aims to raise $84 billion for Bitcoin acquisitions by 2027. This is double the original target under the earlier “21/21” plan. To date, Strategy has raised billions by selling shares and convertible notes, with additional funds still available through its ongoing programs. The company’s market value has reached $110 billion, significantly higher than the net asset value (NAV) of its Bitcoin holdings. Some analysts believe this premium is justified due to the company’s strong equity-to-Bitcoin cycle. Others, however, have raised concerns about a possible negative feedback loop from overdependence on Bitcoin valuations. A recent class action lawsuit also claims that Strategy misled investors about its Bitcoin strategy.

Strategy recently released its second-quarter results, reporting an unrealized gain of $14.05 billion on its BTC holdings. During the second quarter, Strategy also entered into a loan agreement allowing it to borrow up to $31.1 million for capital purchases. Meanwhile, other companies like Metaplanet are adopting similar Bitcoin strategies. Tether-backed Twenty One, Trump Media, and GameStop are among other new entrants following this trend. Following this news, Strategy’s stock closed at $403.99, up by 0.4% on July 5. As of Monday morning, the shares dropped slightly in pre-market trading but are still up by over 34% this year. In comparison, the top coin is up 16.9% since the start of the year, currently trading at $108,346.