Bitcoin Balances on a Knife's Edge as Buyers Test $112K Resistance

Bitcoin's price has exhibited a fragile stabilization above the short-term holder cost basis amid cautious market sentiment, as highlighted by recent analyses from data platforms like Glassnode. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has oscillated around the $111,000 level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) inching closer to the neutral zone, indicating a potential pause in aggressive selling. However, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) in spot trading shows only a 49.5% improvement, reflecting reduced, rather than resolved, selling pressure. Despite this, overall spot trading volumes declined by 8.9%, underscoring the lack of conviction in current market dynamics.

In the futures market, open interest increased slightly to $45.2 billion, nearing the upper statistical band of $47.2 billion, while perpetual futures CVD improved by 74.9%. These metrics suggest that traders maintained open positions without significantly increasing leverage, signaling a balanced yet cautious approach. Meanwhile, funding rates for long positions fell by 8.4%, pointing to a waning appetite for bullish exposure. This defensive posture was also echoed in the options market, where open interest dipped by 1.2%, and volatility spreads narrowed to 17.4%, suggesting calmer expectations and a lower risk premium. Despite this, the 25-delta skew increased to 10.1%, signaling a growing demand for downside protection.

ETF flows also reflected a subdued institutional presence. Net inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped 22.6% to $214.9 million, with trading volumes remaining below historical averages. The ETF Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio climbed slightly to 2.23, indicating mild unrealized gains but no aggressive accumulation from traditional finance participants. On-chain activity showed modest improvements, with active addresses rising 3.8% to 719,300 and realized capitalization increasing 2.7%. However, transfer volumes fell by 3.6%, and transaction fees dropped 6%, pointing to reduced demand for blockspace and a generally quieter network environment.

The recent price rebound has drawn particular attention to the $112,000 to $113,000 range as a pivotal resistance zone. According to market analyst @52kskew, this level represents a key test for short-term momentum, as it could either catalyze a stronger rally or prompt a retest of lower supports, including the defended $110,000 level. The defense of $110,000 has been notable, with limit buyers dominating the rebound from the Friday–Saturday low. This dip-buying behavior has reinforced the idea of a market in cautious but active accumulation mode, where traders remain eager to capitalize on volatility without overextending their positions.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be operating in a state of equilibrium, with institutional selling remaining on the sidelines and retail traders stepping in to absorb dips. While the data does not yet support a strong bullish thesis, it also does not confirm a bearish breakdown, suggesting that Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways in the near term. This scenario could persist until either a significant shift in sentiment or a major external catalyst—such as regulatory developments or macroeconomic shifts—alters the current trajectory.