Bitcoin Balances at $117.5K: 20-30% Rally in Play

Bitcoin is approaching a potential local bottom as multiple technical indicators and historical patterns suggest a reset phase for the cryptocurrency. Swissblock’s Aggregated Impulse technical indicator, which measures the exponential price structure of the top 350 digital assets, shows 22% of altcoins at a negative impulse—a threshold historically linked to market bottoms. The platform notes that in the last seven instances of this signal since 2024, Bitcoin rallied 20-30% post-bottom, while altcoins surged 50-150%. A retest of the $110,000 level appears imminent, with Swissblock warning that a failure to hold above this level could trigger a move toward $105,500–$100,000Bitcoin Bottomed Out the Last Seven Times This Signal Flashed Says Analytics Platform, The Daily Hodl^[1].

Exchange inflows and short-term holder (STH) activity further reinforce the case for a near-term bottom. CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights a spike in STH deposits to Binance, with the inflow ratio exceeding 0.4—a level historically associated with local bottoms. The firm attributes this to retail investors offloading profits as Bitcoin hovers near $120,000. Additionally, Binance recorded a 52% surge in spot trading volume on the day after a price peak, signaling increased market activityBitcoin’s Next “Local Bottom” Could Be Here Thanks To Retail Sellers, Cointelegraph^[2]. CoinGlass data also points to $117,500 as a key liquidity cluster, with bid interest concentrated at this levelBitcoin’s Next “Local Bottom” Could Be Here Thanks To Retail Sellers, Cointelegraph^[2].

Historical patterns add further context to Bitcoin’s current positioning. CoinDesk notes that since July 2024, Bitcoin has typically formed monthly lows within the first 10 days of each month, a trend that aligns with the September 2025 low near $107,000. The fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest, delivering an average 85% return, with October historically favoring bullish momentum since 2013Is The Worst Over For Bitcoin? Analyst Suggests Local Bottom, NewsBTC^[4]. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst “caueconomy” cites a major liquidation event on October 1, 2024, where over 4,000 BTC long positions were wiped out—a potential precursor to a market reversalBTC May Pull Back Toward $107K If It Fails to Reclaim $115K, Coinotag^[5].

Institutional and on-chain activity underscores the fragile balance in Bitcoin’s price structure. Over 25% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has traded above $100,000, creating a structural support zone. However, recent reactivations of dormant coins and large transfers (e.g., 1,401 BTC and ~8,500 BTC) have added sell-side pressure, pushing Bitcoin into a consolidation phase between $114,000–$118,000. Analysts warn that a sustained break below $111,565 could accelerate a move toward $107,367 and the broader $105,000 areaAnalyst Identifies Bitcoin’s New Support At $100K–$107K, Inlineup^[6].

Market sentiment remains mixed, with bearish signals emerging alongside bullish setups. The taker buy/sell ratio has fallen to -0.86, indicating dominant selling pressure, while the SOPR Trend Signal suggests declining blockchain profitability. Joao Wedson of Alphractal notes that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has weakened compared to 2024, reducing its appeal to institutions. Conversely, institutional buying at $100,000–$107,000, identified by CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr., aligns with historical support levels and the 200-day SMA, offering a potential floor for the price.

The path forward hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim key resistance levels. A close above $117,500 could trigger a bullish breakout toward $124,000, while a drop below $111,800 risks a deeper correction toward $106,000. Analysts emphasize that renewed buying interest, particularly from institutional players, will be critical to invalidating bearish technical patterns such as the bearish wedge on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, regulatory developments—such as the U.S. Senate’s upcoming hearing on crypto taxation—could introduce additional volatility.