Bitcoin/Argentine Peso Market Overview: Volatility, Reversals, and Divergence

• BTCARS opened at 170503629.0, reached a high of 174027576.0, and closed at 172920355.0 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price surged during the 15-minute chart with a 15.7% swing into the daily high, followed by a sharp reversal.
• RSI spiked into overbought territory twice before retreating, while volume remained low during key breakouts.
• Price hovered near the 20-period moving average and hit the upper Bollinger Band at session highs, signaling high volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 173454017.0, but failed to hold, indicating potential bearish pressure.

The Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) pair opened at 170503629.0 at 12:00 ET-1 and surged to a high of 174027576.0, before closing at 172920355.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. Total volume for the session was 0.30945 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 53,350,888,993.70 ARS. Price action was marked by sharp intraday swings and divergences between price and volume.

Structure & Formations

A key resistance level was formed around 173549234.0–173840000.0, where price pushed against and failed to break decisively. A bearish reversal was observed at the session high, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at 173454017.0 and a doji appearing at 173549235.0. On the lower end, price found support at 171521422.0 and 171679766.0 multiple times, indicating short-term stabilizing behavior.

A notable intraday high of 174027576.0 was followed by a sharp reversal, suggesting the 173549234.0 level may be a critical psychological and technical resistance. Traders should monitor the 172745553.0–172998241.0 range for possible continuation or breakdown in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price briefly tested the 20-period moving average (173000000.0–173265384.0 range) and the 50-period line (172745557.0–172998241.0) during the session. The 50-period line acted as a dynamic support level during the afternoon and early evening. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average sits at 172211835.0, with the 100-period at 171679766.0, and the 200-period at 171521422.0—suggesting a long-term bearish bias.

Price crossed the 20-period MA during the late hours, signaling a potential shift in momentum. However, the failure to hold above the 50-period MA implies caution around further bullish moves.

MACD & RSI

The RSI (14) surged above 70 twice, during the 15:00–15:30 ET and 15:45–16:00 ET intervals, indicating strong overbought conditions before price corrections. The MACD line turned negative during the late afternoon, suggesting bearish momentum. A bearish crossover occurred at 16:15 ET as the MACD histogram contracted, signaling weakening bullish energy.

Despite the initial overbought conditions, RSI failed to hold above 70 during critical breaks, suggesting underlying bearish pressure. The MACD histogram has been narrowing since 16:00 ET, pointing to a possible trend exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion as price approached the session high of 174027576.0, confirming high volatility. The upper band expanded to around 173700000.0, with price touching it at 173840000.0 and 174027576.0. The middle band sat at 173000000.0, and the lower band at 172258011.0.

A contraction in the bands occurred late in the session, with price consolidating around the middle band. This suggests a possible low-volatility setup ahead, with a potential breakout or continuation in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the session high at 174027576.0, with a notional turnover of 174027576.0 ARS for that 15-minute interval. However, volume dropped significantly during the 16:00–16:15 ET window, despite the price declining further. This divergence suggests weakening conviction in the downward move.

Turnover peaked at 173840000.0 and declined afterward. The total turnover for the session was ~53,350,888,993.70 ARS, with the majority occurring during the 15:00–16:30 ET timeframe. A notable volume dip was observed at 173013033.0 and 173549235.0, indicating uncertain market behavior at key levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the intraday swing from 171521422.0 to 174027576.0, the 38.2% retracement level lies at 172620078.0, which coincided with the 172620078.0–172475389.0 range. The 61.8% level is at 172086990.0, close to the 172211835.0–171692615.0 support cluster.

On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent low-to-high move is at 171679766.0, aligning with a key support area. A break below this could target the 61.8% level at 171521422.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed divergence between price and volume during the key retracements and the multiple failed attempts to break above 173549234.0–173840000.0, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry upon a bearish crossover of the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirmed by a bearish RSI divergence. A stop-loss could be placed just above the 173549234.0 resistance level, with a target near 172211835.0–172086990.0. This strategy would leverage the current bearish momentum and test the strength of the key support levels during consolidation periods.