Bitcoin/Argentine Peso Market Overview (BTCARS) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from 190M to 188M ARS with bearish momentum evident in RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility increased with Bollinger Band expansion, but volume remained subdued, indicating weak conviction.
• A doji formed near 188.5M ARS and key Fibonacci support at 188.1M ARS was tested, suggesting a potential bounce.
• Turnover spiked during the 19:30–20:00 ET window but failed to sustain a rebound, signaling bearish exhaustion.

BTCARS opened at 190,058,849 ARS on October 6 at 16:00 ET and closed at 188,691,489 ARS the following day. The pair reached a high of 191,700,575 ARS and a low of 187,000,001 ARS. Total volume traded was 0.438 BTC, with a notional turnover of 81,422,537,475 ARS.

Key support levels formed at 188,147,336 ARS (61.8% Fibonacci) and 187,000,001 ARS (prior swing low), while resistance is seen at 189,237,262 ARS. A doji appeared near 188,503,884 ARS after a brief rebound attempt, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern that confirmed downward momentum. The 20-period moving average sits below the 50-period line in a death cross configuration, reinforcing the bearish bias.

RSI reached oversold territory below 30 during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, but failed to trigger a reversal. MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum shift. Bollinger Bands expanded during the decline, reflecting heightened volatility. Price spent most of the 24-hour period in the lower half of the bands, indicating weak buyer participation. Volume spiked briefly during the 19:30–20:00 ET session but failed to confirm strength, with notional turnover peaking at 2,145,106,986 ARS during that period.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the 191,700,575 ARS high and 187,000,001 ARS low show 188,147,336 ARS (61.8%) as the immediate support and 189,237,262 ARS (38.2%) as the first resistance. A retest of the 188.1M ARS level could confirm bearish exhaustion, but a break below 187.0M ARS would signal a deeper correction. Traders may watch for a potential bounce or a breakout with strong volume.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern formation near key Fibonacci support levels (e.g., 188.1M ARS) with a stop-loss above the prior high and a target at the next 61.8% level. Given the current setup, this strategy may yield positive returns in the next 24–48 hours, provided that volume confirms the break and RSI does not indicate overbought conditions.