Bitcoin/Argentine Peso Market Overview

Summary
• BTCARS rose sharply from 152.5M to 157.3M ARS, with strong bullish momentum.
• RSI near overbought territory suggests potential short-term pullback.
• High volatility and volume surges highlight significant Argentine Peso demand.

The Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) pair opened at 152.5M ARS on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 157.7M ARS, and settled at 157.3M ARS at 12:00 ET-1. The 24-hour volume reached 0.1502 BTC, with a notional turnover of ~23.7 billion ARS.

The 15-minute candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours showed a strong bullish trend, breaking above prior resistance levels. The price formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, with a key resistance zone forming around 155.2M–157.3M ARS. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 154.5M ARS, followed by a continuation of momentum. A doji at 153.7M ARS signaled potential indecision but was quickly overwhelmed by buying pressure.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are in an upward alignment, reinforcing the bullish trend. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA earlier in the session, suggesting a potential short-term continuation. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average remains below the 200-period MA, but the price is holding above the 50-day line, indicating a possible near-term reversal to bullish bias.

MACD showed a strong positive divergence with price, with the histogram expanding into positive territory. RSI approached 75, signaling overbought conditions and a possible retracement. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, indicating rising volatility. The price closed near the upper band, which could lead to a reversion toward the mean.

Volume and turnover spiked sharply during the 18:00–19:00 ET period and again around 00:30–01:00 ET-1, confirming the bullish breakout. However, volume slightly declined in the last four hours, suggesting potential exhaustion of the rally.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing from 153.7M to 157.7M ARS placed key levels at 156.3M (38.2%) and 155.4M (61.8%). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the recent major move aligns with 155.2M ARS, which may offer near-term support.

Looking ahead, BTCARS may test 158.0M ARS as a new resistance and 155.2M ARS as immediate support. Traders should watch for overbought RSI and a potential pullback, particularly if volume fails to confirm higher closes. A sharp decline in volume or a bearish divergence in MACD could signal caution.

MACD and RSI have shown strong bullish momentum but suggest caution ahead due to overbought conditions.

Backtest Hypothesis

To confirm the strength of the current trend, a backtest using RSI-based trading rules could be useful. The idea is to go long when RSI crosses above 50 and hold for one day, or exit if RSI hits 70 (overbought). The hypothesis is that such a strategy, applied to BTCARS since 2022-01-01, may have yielded a profitable outcome during bullish phases, particularly in periods of high Argentine inflation and dollarization demand. However, due to the current data limitations, the strategy cannot be validated in real-time unless the correct ticker symbol is confirmed.