Bitcoin/Argentine Peso Market Overview

• Price opened at 170,895,819 and closed near 170,089,222 after a 24-hour range of ~1.7%.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed during early hours, signaling potential bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded mid-day with a high of 171,945,584, followed by a pullback into Bollinger Band support.
• RSI entered oversold territory near the close, suggesting possible short-term reversal.
• Turnover surged in the overnight session, aligning with a 170,620,553 level breakout attempt.

The Bitcoin/Argentine Peso pair (BTCARS) opened at 170,895,819 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 170,089,222. The pair reached a high of 171,945,584 and a low of 169,915,916 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 0.488 BTC, with notional turnover reaching approximately 83.3 billion ARS.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias following a large engulfing candle in the early hours and a strong bearish reversal from the intraday high at 171,945,584. A key support level emerged around 170,620,553, tested multiple times, with price rebounding on several occasions. A bearish divergence in price and volume during the afternoon suggests weakening bullish conviction. A doji formed near 170,000,000, signaling indecision after the early bearish wave.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages after a brief rally toward the close. The 50-period line currently sits around 170,600,000, while the 20-period line is slightly above. On a daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are not clearly defined due to the limited data, but the 100-period line is positioned near 170,700,000, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the morning, with the line dipping below the signal line as bearish momentum built. By the close, the histogram remained negative, affirming the bearish trend. The RSI approached 30 near the session’s close, suggesting oversold conditions. However, this may not necessarily trigger a bounce, as bearish sentiment remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility expanded during the overnight hours as it moved above the upper Bollinger Band, reaching a high of 171,945,584. The bands have since contracted slightly, with price settling near the lower band at the session’s end. The recent move into and out of the bands indicates a potential range expansion or reversal phase, with key levels around 170,600,000 and 171,000,000 acting as immediate support and resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the overnight and early morning hours, particularly between 00:15 and 04:30 ET, coinciding with a rally toward 171,945,584. The increase in notional turnover aligns with the breakout attempt. However, volume has since cooled off, with bearish price action not being confirmed by a rise in volume, suggesting traders may be cautious ahead of further moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the overnight high of 171,945,584 and the intraday low of 169,915,916, the key levels of 170,785,000 (38.2%) and 170,445,000 (61.8%) have acted as significant support. Price bounced near the 61.8% level twice before resuming the downtrend. A break below 170,445,000 could extend the move toward 169,915,916 or even lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold conditions observed. A short entry could be triggered when price closes below the 170,620,553 level with a stop above the 170,785,000 (38.2% Fibonacci level). This could be paired with a MACD bearish crossover confirmation and a move below the 20-period MA. A trailing stop could be placed near the next support level at 170,445,000 for risk management. This approach leverages multiple indicators in alignment with the observed bearish setup.