Bitcoin's April 2025 Gain 14.08% Despite Early Downturn

Bitfinex, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, has suggested that Bitcoin's (BTC) current bull cycle may not have reached its peak yet. This optimistic outlook is contingent on the stabilization of broader macroeconomic conditions. The exchange's report highlights that while short-term dips are possible, the overall trend appears positive, especially if Bitcoin can maintain its price above critical technical levels like $95,000.

In April 2025, Bitcoin posted a monthly gain of 14.08%, exceeding its historical average of 13% and the median return of 7.3%. This performance was notable given that recent years have seen more muted results for the month of April. The beginning of April was challenging for Bitcoin, with President Trump’s tariff announcements triggering a sharp downturn in price, which dropped as low as $74,501. However, amid dollar depreciation and inflation concerns, Bitcoin found new ground. By the second half of the month, the price rallied again and recovered 32% from its previously low to local highs of $97,900. This strong close underscored its resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty and reflected renewed investor optimism in its future potential.

On-chain data further reinforced this optimism. The stability in miner reserves, which increased slightly from 1,808,315 BTC in December 2024 to 1,808,674 BTC as of May 5, indicated a deliberate holding strategy by miners. This behavior suggested that miners expect future price appreciation. Additionally, the Puell Multiple, an indicator measuring miner revenue relative to historical averages, remains below 2. This implied that miners do not believe the current price is a market peak. Miners typically sell during market rallies or extremes, but their continued holding despite recent gains supports the idea that Bitcoin may have more room to grow.

Bitfinex underlined a critical short-term challenge for Bitcoin: reclaiming the $95,000 level. This level, currently under consolidation, is a critical pivot point acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range that defined market structure between November 2024 and February 2025. According to Bitfinex's analysis, flipping the $95,000 level into strong support would indicate a shift in the market towards a bullish trend. Furthermore, it could set the stage for a potential test of its all-time high prices. However, BTC’s failure to hold this level could reinstate it as a resistance for the price, making a short-term decline or correction likely.

Bitfinex also evaluated the strength of the current Bitcoin rally using the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which represents the average acquisition price of coins held by recent investors. Historically, this cost basis has acted as a dividing line between bullish and bearish market phases. The current STH cost basis is at $93,340. Bitcoin has successfully broken above this threshold, signaling short-term momentum. However, maintaining this level will be crucial in determining if the rally continues or loses momentum.

Bitfinex's analysis suggests that the next several days will likely determine whether the recent strength evolves into a sustained breakout or resolves into a retest of lower support zones. The exchange's report provides a comprehensive view of Bitcoin's current market dynamics, highlighting both the potential for continued growth and the challenges that lie ahead. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors and analysts will be closely watching these key indicators to gauge the future trajectory of Bitcoin's price.