Is Bitcoin Approaching a Durable Bottom Amid Persistent Weakness and Whale Selling?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been defined by a tug-of-war between cyclical optimism and structural headwinds. While retail investors continue to buy dips, institutional and whale-level selling pressure has intensified, raising critical questions about whether the market is nearing a durable bottom or merely navigating a protracted bearish correction. To assess this, we must dissect the interplay between structural and cyclical factors shaping Bitcoin's trajectory.

Structural Selling: The Weight of Whale Activity and ETF Outflows

Structural selling refers to long-term, systemic forces that erode Bitcoin's price floor. A key driver in 2025 has been the behavior of large holders, or "whales." On-chain analytics firm Glassnode notes that whale selling has followed a classic late-cycle pattern, with large holders gradually reducing positions to lock in profits or hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. This contrasts with cyclical selling, which often reflects short-term profit-taking during market corrections.

Data from K33 underscores the scale of this structural pressure: approximately 20% of Bitcoin's supply has been reactivated over the past two years, with many of these sales involving large blocks of coins. These transactions, driven by corporate treasury needs and U.S. spot ETF liquidity demands, have exacerbated bearish momentum. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, with a single-day redemption of $357.6 million in December 2025-the largest since early December. Such outflows signal weakening institutional demand, compounding structural weakness.

Cyclical Selling: Retail Resilience and Liquidity Constraints

Cyclical selling, by contrast, reflects shorter-term market dynamics. Retail investors have emerged as a stabilizing force, with buying activity intensifying during price dips. This suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition, particularly as hybrid CeFi-DeFi platforms expand access to crypto-native assets. However, retail demand alone cannot offset the absence of institutional or whale-level support.

On-chain liquidity metrics further highlight cyclical fragility. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse-a measure of Bitcoin's net movement between exchanges-has fallen below its 90-day moving average, entering a historically bearish "red zone." This indicates weakening structural momentum, as liquidity providers struggle to absorb increased selling pressure. Analysts like Vincent Liu from Kronos Research argue that such conditions are not necessarily terminal, provided buyer demand can absorb the supply over time.

Diverging Signals: Can Retail Confidence Offset Structural Weakness?

The divergence between whale and retail behavior creates a complex narrative. While retail buying has prevented a sharper decline, structural selling-particularly from large holders and ETF outflows-remains a critical overhang. K33's analysis offers a glimmer of hope, predicting that sell-side pressure from long-term holders may near saturation by 2026. If this materializes, it could mark a turning point for Bitcoin's price discovery.

However, the market's reliance on institutional demand remains unmet. The Federal Reserve's pause on quantitative tightening has not yet translated into renewed bullish momentum, as investors await clearer signals from ETF inflows and on-chain liquidity recovery. A breakout above the $90,000 psychological level could reignite whale capital, but this requires a coordinated shift in both structural and cyclical dynamics.

Conclusion: A Durable Bottom in Sight?

Bitcoin's path to a durable bottom hinges on resolving the tension between structural and cyclical forces. While whale selling and ETF outflows represent entrenched headwinds, retail resilience and potential saturation of sell-side pressure offer a counterbalance. The key question is whether institutional demand will reemerge to absorb the current supply overhang-a scenario that remains contingent on macroeconomic clarity and regulatory developments.

For now, the market appears in a transitional phase. Investors should monitor on-chain liquidity metrics, ETF flows, and whale activity for early signs of equilibrium. Until then, Bitcoin's durable bottom may remain elusive, caught between the weight of structural selling and the flickering hope of cyclical recovery.