Is Bitcoin Approaching Its 2025 Cycle Peak? Evaluating the Bull Run's Final Leg

Bitcoin’s 2025 bull run has entered a critical juncture, with technical and institutional signals painting a complex picture of momentum and caution. As the asset trades near $111,000 in early September, the market is grappling with conflicting narratives: bullish fundamentals driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds, versus bearish technical indicators hinting at a potential cycle peak.

Technical Indicators: A Tug-of-War Between Momentum and Reversal

Bitcoin’s price action in Q3 2025 reveals a fragile equilibrium. The 50-day moving average (currently at $115,035) remains above the 200-day average ($101,760), a bullish “golden cross” that suggests short-term upward bias. However, the 14-month RSI divergence—a bearish precursor to trend reversals—has emerged, with the indicator declining despite price gains [1]. This divergence, coupled with a confirmed Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily chart, raises concerns about a potential breakdown below the $113,000 neckline [1].

On-chain metrics offer mixed signals. The MVRV Z-Score rebounded to 1.43, aligning with historical bull-cycle bottoms [4], while Value Days Destroyed (VDD) entered the “green zone,” signaling long-term holder accumulation [4]. Yet, the MVRV ratio’s recent “death cross” (30-day MA crossing below 365-day MA) and a bearish MACD crossover in the weekly chart suggest weakening bullish momentum [3].

Key support levels at $110,000 and $108,250 remain critical. A break below $110,000 could trigger a test of the UTXO Realized Price Distribution’s next major support at $104,250 [1]. Conversely, a sustained break above $113,000 might reignite the bull trend toward $135,000–$145,000, as predicted by Standard Chartered and Bitwise [3].

Institutional Signals: ETF Inflows and Corporate Adoption Fuel Optimism

Institutional adoption has been a cornerstone of Bitcoin’s 2025 rally. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $55 billion in year-to-date inflows, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF alone absorbing $50 billion [1]. This surge reflects a shift in perception: Bitcoin is no longer a speculative asset but a strategic reserve asset, as evidenced by MicroStrategy’s $7,700 purchase in August and the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s expansion [4].

Ethereum, however, has outpaced Bitcoin in institutional flows, with $1.83 billion in ETF inflows in early August compared to Bitcoin’s outflows [2]. This divergence underscores Ethereum’s appeal as a yield-generating asset (3–6% staking returns) and its post-merge upgrades (Dencun, Pectra) [2]. Yet, Bitcoin’s fixed supply model and growing corporate adoption—exemplified by the Trump family’s $7 billion $WLFI token and Japan’s regulatory reforms—suggest its institutional narrative remains intact [4].

Derivatives markets highlight a cautious stance. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures hit $41.19 billion in late August, but the 25-delta put-call skew of −4.3% in options markets indicates bearish positioning [3]. Meanwhile, positive funding rates (1.73% on September 3) suggest longs are paying to hold bullish exposure, a costly environment that could deter speculative buying [3].

Conflicting Signals: Bullish Fundamentals vs. Bearish Technicals

The tension between bullish fundamentals and bearish technicals defines Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle. On one hand, macroeconomic tailwinds—including the Fed’s dovish pivot and ETF-driven demand—are creating a supply-demand imbalance. With only 900 BTC mined daily post-halving, the asset’s scarcity premium is amplified against $3 trillion in projected institutional demand by 2032 [1].

On the other hand, technical indicators warn of a potential top. The Head and Shoulders pattern’s neckline at $113,000 and the RSI divergence suggest a high probability of a short-term correction. If Bitcoin fails to retest $112,000, a 23% drop to $87,000 could materialize, as seen in historical bear cycles [3].

Conclusion: A Cycle Peak in the Making?

Bitcoin’s 2025 bull run is at a crossroads. Institutional adoption and ETF inflows have transformed the asset into a mainstream portfolio staple, yet technical indicators hint at a potential cycle peak. The coming weeks will hinge on whether bulls can reclaim $113,000 and sustain momentum above the 200-day MA.

For investors, the key is to balance optimism with caution. While long-term fundamentals—ETF adoption, corporate treasury demand, and macroeconomic tailwinds—remain robust, short-term volatility is inevitable. As the market navigates this inflection point, monitoring on-chain accumulation, derivatives positioning, and macroeconomic data (e.g., U.S. labor reports) will be critical to discerning whether this is a cyclical peak or a consolidation phase ahead of a new bull leg.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Eyes $200K Rally After Rebounding Strongly From $110K Support [https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-eyes-200k-rally-after-rebounding-strongly-from-110k-support][2] BlackRock's Strategic Ethereum Accumulation: A New Era [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604938279][3] Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report Sep 5 2025 [https://www.blockscholes.com/research/bybit-x-block-scholes-crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-sep-5-2025][4] 10 Key Cryptocurrency Developments (August 30–September 3 2025) [https://www.riotimesonline.com/10-key-cryptocurrency-developments-august-30-september-3-2025/]