Bitcoin Ancient Supply Grows Faster Than New Issuance Post-Halving

On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin’s (BTC) “ancient supply,” defined as Bitcoins that have remained unmoved for at least a decade, is growing at a faster rate than the daily issuance of new BTC. This trend was highlighted in a June 18 research report, which noted that since April 2024, an average of 566 BTC have entered the 10-year-plus cohort daily, surpassing the 450 BTC that miners add to circulation every day. This milestone was reached less than a year after the 2024 block-reward halving, which cut issuance in half, significantly altering the network’s supply dynamics.

Ancient supply now represents more than 17% of all mined Bitcoin, amounting to approximately 3.4 million BTC. At a price of $107,000 per coin, this stash is valued at roughly $360 billion. This figure is a stark contrast to the near-zero value when the metric was first calculated at the start of 2019. Satoshi Nakamoto holds 33% of this stash, while another unknown portion may be irretrievably lost. However, analysts note that any coin can still be brought back into active use.

The report also highlighted the conviction and volatility of Bitcoin holders. Daily declines in the 10-year bucket occur less than 3% of the time, but this share rises to 13% when the threshold drops to five-year holders. The post-2024 US election period increased churn among even the most steadfast wallets. Since November, the ancient supply has shrunk on 10% of trading days, quadrupling its historical average. Movement from 5- to 10-year holders appears more sensitive, with coins aged at least five years exiting their bucket on 39% of days over the same span, triple the norm. This surge was linked to first-quarter sideways prices, suggesting that heightened distribution from older cohorts can mute short-term upside even while net scarcity rises.

Fidelity also assessed the “HODL rate,” defined as the ancient supply inflows minus new issuance. This measure flipped positive in April 2024 and averages positive 116 Bitcoin per day, reinforcing the idea that a hardening core of holders is absorbing circulation faster than miners can replace it. Because Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is programmed to decrease with halvings, the firm projects that the circulating supply will reach 20% of all Bitcoin by 2034, based on current trends. Public corporations may accelerate this trend, as twenty-seven listed companies now collectively hold more than 800,000 BTC. Fidelity’s model predicted that the ancient supply will exceed 30% of the float by 2035 if firms with 1,000 BTC or more continue to hold coins on their balance sheets.

Despite the suggested scarcity, it does not guarantee higher prices without the appropriate level of demand to absorb it. However, a durable rise in long-term controlled coins tightens the float available to traders and increasingly ties price discovery to marginal flows. Fidelity concluded that Bitcoin now stands apart from commodities with elastic supply, highlighting its unique position in the market.